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What will become of us, if we falter

What awaits Russia in the near future, if we falter, Putin stepped back and win the fifth caloocan interesting analytical forecast what will happen with Russia, if we falter, Putin will retreat and victory of a liberal fifth column. To prevent this, we should never. To avoid this, we have a very lot of work…

 

The scenario of the geopolitical capitulation of Russia

The Author – Mikhail Alexandrov

The geopolitical scenario of surrender can begin to happen before the presidential election of 2024. Although the probability of such development of events before the presidential election in 2024 small, but to completely discount it would be ill-advised. Most likely, this evolution will be possible in case of mistakes and miscalculations of the political leadership of the country in economic and employment policy, as well as pressures of the various oligarchic clans and of some influential individuals, pursuing their narrow interests.

At the initial stage, the scenario of liberal revenge will be to proceed quietly, but then will lead to a sharp aggravation of the political situation in the country. First exposed to Western sanctions oligarchy and bureaucracy will increase pressure on the President, pushing him to make concessions to the West, in particular, on the surrender of Donbass on the example of Serbian Krajina. Western partners of the Russian oligarchs, the President promised substantial sanctions relief in case of reintegration of Donbass in the Ukraine.

The liberal wing of the government under the pretext of economic difficulties will take a number of unpopular economic measures, the disturbance of the population. Non-system Pro-Western opposition protests demanding cancellation of anti-Western contracti “to alleviate the plight of the people.” These shares will be joined by the disaffected population. Thus will be formed the illusion that the economic situation is deteriorating due to confrontation with the West, and the people supposedly requires the confrontation to stop.

In these circumstances, the President goes on about the Pro-Western circles and agrees to the surrender of Donbass in a beautiful wrapper “implementation of the Minsk agreements“. The Russian delegation to the UN is instructed to vote in the Security Council for a resolution on the beginning of the UN peacekeeping operation in the Donbas. The territory of the DNI and LC are entered the UN peacekeeping forces, which overlap the border with Russia and cut off those self-proclaimed Republic from the Russian assistance. Then, on the territory of both republics seep the special units of the Kiev regime who are beginning to take control of key infrastructure facilities. Attempts by the armed forces of the DNI and the LC can help declared ceasefire violations and blocked by UN forces. After some time, all the key objects of Donbass are under control of Ukrainian units.

Assistance from Russia comes. The authorities DND and LNR realize the hopelessness of their situation and under the escort of UN troops leave the territory of Donbass. Behind them the rush of thousands of refugees. The flow of refugees to Russia sharply increased when the APU and volunteer battalions of Ukraine start a total sweep of the territory from disloyal elements. All this massive coverage in the Russian and foreign media. As a consequence, the authority of the President and his entourage in Patriotic circles of Russia and the power structures drops sharply.

Meanwhile, the West accepts only symbolic steps for the lifting of sanctions and said that they can be completely stopped only after solving the problem of the Crimea. The liberal government of the Russian Federation continues unpopular economic measures, increased excise taxes, tariffs and other levies from the population. The flow of refugees from Donbass on the territory of the Russian Federation exacerbates the economic situation.

Inflation increased to 6-8% per year. In an effort to curb it, the Central Bank increases interest rates, which adversely affects the lending industry and consumer demand. Under the pretext that it is necessary to stop the socio-economic crisis, caused by the flow of refugees from the Donbass, and that relations with the West, supposedly out on the trajectory normalization, the liberals cut defense spending. It causes justified dissatisfaction of the military and the entire security unit. The reduction of military expenditure hinders the growth of production, especially in industrial and high-tech fields. Russia’s economy enters a stage of stagnation. Economic growth reduced to 0.5% per year.

The West requires a new referendum in the Crimea under international control. To do this, Moscow should formally withdraw the Republic from the Russian Federation. Vague reaction of the authorities to these demands of the West leads to the fact that in the Crimea, the mass fermentation of people aktiviziruyutsya the Crimean Tatar separatists. Part of law enforcement officers of the Crimea, seeing the effects of a situation on Donbass, are sitting on the fence. The most unstable of them seek contacts with the Kiev regime for the purpose of obtaining the indulgence in the future in exchange for certain services. The political situation in the Crimea is destabilizing.

Against this background, aktiviziruyutsya Patriotic opposition in Moscow, calling the people to mass rallies in support of Crimea. She gets unexpected support liberal and Pro-Western circles that provide financial resources to hold rallies under the slogan of resignation of the President. The capital hosts a series of mass meetings of protest. In the conditions of growing political instability population, small and medium businesses to protect their cash savings, starts to buy the currency. In the absence of a control system for stock trading currency, this leads to a sharp increase in currency speculation and depreciation of the ruble by 50%.

After that, the Central Bank is forced to intervene to support the ruble. He manages to stabilize the ruble at around 100 rubles for 1 US dollar, spending on the 1/3 of its currency reserves. Meanwhile, the fall of the ruble is causing a new round of inflation, which increases to 10% per year. This in turn leads to a further decline in purchasing power and further slows down the growth of the economy. In fact, the economy enters a stage of negative growth.

Meanwhile, the Kiev regime, to establish control over the Donbas, moves shock military fist on the borders of Crimea. Inspired by the victory in the Donbas Ukrainian military are in a fighting mood. Russian troops in the Crimea, on the contrary, disoriented and depressed. In these conditions the Ukrainian side starts shelling of Russian border guards and the nearby settlements of the Crimea. There are the first dead and wounded among Russian servicemen. However, the Russian troops in Crimea react to these attacks very limited because of Moscow’s failure to order a decisive blow to throw back the aggressor. Ukrainian saboteurs attempt to blow up the bridge across the Kerch Strait. They manage to incapacitate the railway part of the bridge, which leads to additional difficulties in the supply of the Crimea.

The protests of the Crimean population increase, part of the Crimean activists is headed to Rostov, Krasnodar, Voronezh, Moscow, where it joins the stock for the preservation of the Crimea as part of Russia. These meetings are merged into one stream with demonstrations of socio-economic nature and rallies of non-system opposition for the resignation of the President. But concreting, like the rally on Poklonnaya already happening, because of the Patriotic wing of the Russian society denies the President further support.

The President is left alone with the growth of massive protests, controlled by the liberals. Official organizations, such as United Russia and the onf, a split at the top are incompetent. At a certain stage of clashes of protesters with Asgardia, in which appear the first victims. Once again the West tightens sanctions. Pro-Western circles close to the President demanding the resignation of security Ministers and generals, “guilty of bloodshed”, and appointments to these positions are acceptable to liberals and the West figures.

This point will be critical for the fate of this scenario and Russia. At this point the President still has the opportunity to regain the situation back and relying on loyal security forces to impose a state of emergency, dissolve the government, arresting protest leaders and the most active representatives of the “fifth column”, to put the media under strict control, to transfer administrative control in large cities, the military commandant to announce that Crimea is an integral part of Russia, and to take decisive rupture of relations with the West. It some time will complicate the economic situation in the country even more, but will save the Russian state.

If the President gives in to pressure Pro-Western circles and change of heads of the power unit, it will be entirely dependent on the liberal clan and will not be able to make independent decisions. In the end he was forced to go into early retirement. In this case, liberal revenge will come in the form of a Palace coup. Will be appointed early presidential elections, with the support of “United Russia” will win the liberal candidate hiding behind Patriotic rhetoric.

It is also possible, in which the President will not succumb to the pressure of Pro-Western circles not replace a loyal security forces on the other, but not take drastic measures to suppress the people involved. This decision will delay the interchange, but will not prevent it. The West will adopt new sanctions. The economic situation under the leadership of the liberal wing of the government will continue to deteriorate.

The unwillingness of the President to give a decisive military response to armed provocations in the Crimea, Kiev would further undermine its authority in the power structures. And if the top security officials will continue to maintain loyalty to the President, at lower and middle level power structures that loyalty will cease to exist. Ordinary soldiers would refuse to actively deal with the protesters. After that, the control over the major cities will begin to pass into the hands of the opposition. An increasing number of persons from the entourage of the President begins to play a double game. Suppression of the opposition force at this stage will be impossible. The President will have to resign and appoint early elections. Thus, liberal revenge will be realized in the form of “orange revolution“.

After the change of power in the Kremlin, the solution to the problem of Crimea will take some time, but by 2025 it will be returned to Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic, which in the future will again lose their status. This will be accompanied by a mass Exodus from the Crimea of the Russian population and the seizure of their property by Pro-Ukrainian elements. The black sea fleet will also be forced to leave the Crimea. All this will be a serious burden for the Russian economy. The number of refugees exceeds 3 million people. Will require the construction of new port infrastructure and housing for servicemen. This will be done very slowly due to the reduction of the military budget and in some way to remind the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany under Gorbachev.

Russia’s economy, under this scenario, in fact, will not grow as economic growth in the first two years will be replaced by stagnation, and then decline. Accordingly, GDP at PPP will be approximately at the level of 2016 – 3,862 trillion. $ . At the same time Russia falls from sixth to eighth place in the ranking of the largest economies in the world. Inflation will be around 10%. National income per capita at PPP in absolute terms will decrease slightly, however, relative to other countries significantly. By this parameter Russia will drop from 77th to 84th in the international ranking. In connection with the further commercialization of education will fall even more the quality of human capital. In the country established the dictatorship of the liberals. They drastically reduce the armed forces and Resguardo, but will significantly increase the number of private security agencies that will suppress the popular demonstrations against the increasingly tough economic policy.

After solving the “Crimean question” the West to lift most economic sanctions, but will impose on Russia an indemnity for “compensation for losses” caused “by the Russian annexation of the Crimea” and the war in the Donbass. This indemnity will be calculated in tens of billions of dollars and will include direct financial subsidies to the Ukrainian budget, and the supply of Russian gas and oil at low prices, as well as free access of Ukrainian products to the Russian market.

While the oligarchic structure of the Russian Federation will be able to recoup their losses by raising prices and tariffs, the Russian medium and small businesses will be in a difficult situation, because it will decrease the purchasing demand of the population, increase tariffs, excise taxes and other levies from businessmen, and the Russian market will again be inundated with cheap Ukrainian products and goods from the EU, against which counter-sanctions will be lifted.

There are any major production cuts in the defense industry due to a sharp decrease in defense spending. Accordingly, stop and industrial chains that supply this sector of the economy, about the same as it was in the 90-ies. A large number of refugees from Donbass and the Crimea will remain a serious burden for the state budget. Accordingly, the Russian economy will not only recover, but will continue to fall rate of 1% per year. Inflation will remain at 10% per year, and in the consumer sector even higher. The people’s living standards continue to decline.

At the same time, the abolition of Western sanctions will be of a short-term characteristicof R. in less than a year after the decision of the Crimean issue, as Washington and Brussels put forward conditions regarding Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, threatening with new sanctions. Transnistria will fall first. By 2030, the liberal government will agree to the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. The Ukrainian side will imposed strict blockade against the Republic. The West will require the introduction in the Republic of UN peacekeeping forces. When voting on the resolution in the UN Security Council the Russian delegation will abstain in Libya.

The backbone of the UN peacekeeping forces in Transdniestria will be the troops of the countries-members of NATO. Faced with irresistible force, PMR surrendered without a fight. UN troops will provide a way out of the management of PMR, but the leaders and Junior managers that can not do, and of reprisals on the part of the official Chisinau. Moldovan nationalists begin a mass sweep of territory of Transnistria from the “Pro-Russian elements”. Russian will be cast out from all posts in the government, education, law enforcement. Their business will be withdrawn in favor of the new Moldovan nomenclature. Any resistance will be harshly suppressed. The number of Russian refugees from Transnistria will be about 200 thousand people in addition to 4 million refugees from Donbas and Crimea.

Even more critical will be the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The West to present Moscow with an ultimatum on the withdrawal of recognition of independence of these republics and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Against this primarily North Ossetia, but also of Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia. Moscow will be torn between the position of their regions and the threat of Western sanctions. However, after a moment’s hesitation, the Pro-Western oligarchic elite in Moscow will prevail. Without consultation with North and South Ossetia, Russian troops leave the region. They will also be withdrawn from Abkhazia. However, the attempt of Georgia to enter South Ossetia and Abkhazia troops encounter armed resistance of the local population. North Ossetia will provide his countrymen with military aid and actually come out from under Moscow’s control. Help the Abkhazians will have the Circassian peoples of the North Caucasus. The war with Georgia would spill over the borders.

The West is under threat of new sanctions will demand from Moscow to restore order on the border with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow’s attempt to implement the plan will lead to military clashes between Russian troops and Caucasian volunteers. And the Russian military will not show much enthusiasm in this war. Of the Russian military units in the Caucasus will begin mass desertion, which will be promoted by the authorities of the Caucasian republics including by bribing and luring in the volunteer armed groups. This behavior of military personnel receive the support of the Russian society, as the war in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with Georgia will be perceived as fair. At the same time the authorities and the population of the Caucasian republics will begin to sabotage the supply of food and fuel to the Russian troops on the border. This sabotage will gradually evolve into a full-scale guerrilla war.

Destabilization of the situation in the Caucasus will take advantage of the separatist forces in the Caucasus republics, which will begin to create their own private army and demand independence from Moscow. The situation in the Caucasus will be something to remind the company of the early 90-ies of the last century. Demoralized the Russian army will be unable to restore order in the region. Moreover, law enforcement’s actions against the Caucasian separatists unexpectedly met with opposition from the West which could claim the right of these peoples to determine their own destiny. Washington and Brussels will start to convince the liberal government in Moscow to give the republics independence, utilizing the old notion that they are “a burden on the Russian economy.” By the time the self-styled leaders of the North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Dagestan and Chechnya declares independence. In the republics there is a diarchy. The Caucasian separatists would receive political and material support from the West. To help them rush the gunmen from Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a mechanism of control through the election of “United Russia” will not allow its citizens to secure a change of power by democratic means. All opposition parties of a Patriotic orientation will be under strong pressure. They will be deprived of the financial and resource support, they will be various administrative hurdles. Against the most popular leaders will be instituted criminal proceedings, and sometimes to be direct intimidation, as in the current Ukraine.

Therefore, the elections 2030 confidently again “win” the Pro-Western candidate. By 2035 the Russian economy will fall by about 15% compared to the 2025 year. PPP GDP will be approximately of 3.28 trillion. $ . Russia will fall to tenth place in the ranking of the largest economies in the world. Inflation will be at the level of 10-12% per year. The number of the population has not changed, it stabiliziruemost at the level of 2025, and the separation of the Crimea will be “compensated” by a large number of refugees from there and also from the Donbas and Transnistria. But national income per capita will fall significantly, by approximately 20% in the calculation of the PPP will be $18 032$. per person. According to this indicator, Russia is not included even in the first hundred countries in the world. And the standard of living of citizens will be comparable to the current Ukrainian.

After two or three years after the Stripping of Transnistria Moldova to join NATO. Behind her followed by Ukraine. Russia will lose its attractiveness to partners in the community. In Belarus and Kazakhstan will be changed. In a liberal revenge in Russia to power in these countries will also receive a Pro-Western leaders. They declare their orientation to the EU and NATO. Will begin a gradual dismantling of the EurAsEC. Economic influence of Russia in the former Soviet Union will fall significantly. Belarus, Moldova, the Caucasus and Central Asian countries through the Eastern partnership and the Association agreements with the EU will be increasingly involved in economic relations with the West.

Belarus by that time out of the CSTO and declare its military neutrality. While the official purpose of the Republic is declared membership in NATO and the European Union. Georgia will receive the status of candidate country for NATO membership, while Azerbaijan will declare their intention to join the Alliance in the medium term. Armenia also come from the CSTO, but will retain the agreement on mutual assistance with Russia. At the same time, it will have to gradually shift to NATO, and in this context stand the painful question of the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijan’s conditions.

China and Iran, realizing the helplessness of Russia and its orientation to the West, will increasingly distance itself from Moscow will cease to support it politically in the UN and other international forums. In economic terms, China and Iran will quite shamelessly to push their own interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus, already ignoring the interests of Moscow. At the same time they start to lure the most talented Russian scientists and engineers of the defence industry to take advantage of their services in order to strengthen its deterrent force in the face of Western aggression.

By 2035, the EurAsEC and the CSTO will cease to exist. Belarus, Georgia and Azerbaijan join NATO. Situation will deteriorate so much that it will be forced to return Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan and apply for NATO membership. The Russian base will be withdrawn from the territory of Armenia and a Treaty of mutual assistance early denounced. Came to power in Kazakhstan Kazakh nationalists take advantage of the situation and will begin to force the extrusion of the remaining Russian population. In this way they will be able at some time to stabilize the political situation in the sharp deterioration of the economic situation of the country. Redistributing among their supporters seized Russian property, they will be able for several years to secure a political base of support. Subject to the Donbass, Crimea, Transdniestria and the republics of the North Caucasus the total number of Russian refugees in Russia amount to about 10 million people.

The third decade of the 21st century will be the last years of Russia’s existence as we know it today. The growing economic devastation in the North Caucasus would encourage the inhabitants of the Caucasian republics to commit armed raids on neighboring regions with a predominantly Russian population. This would have an impact of Stavropol and Krasnodar Krai, and Rostov oblast. The failure of Russian authorities to stop such raids would lead to the arming of the citizens and organizations of self-defense groups and separatist authorities outside the control of Moscow. In the national autonomies of the Russian Federation outside the Caucasus will increase separatism.

In these circumstances, most reasonable people among the liberal leadership of Russia will begin to insist on the introduction of a state of emergency, a sharp increase in expenditure on the army and other security forces, and violent suppression of manifestations of separatism. But they will encounter tough opposition to oligarchic circles associated with the West and of the West. Brussels and Washington threatened to impose sanctions against the oligarchs who are not actively prevent the use of emergency and increase defence spending. Against this plan also hysterical will perform all of the liberal media. In the end, plan of emergency will not be approved, provisions for the armed forces will increase slightly and the destabilization of the country will continue to deepen.

In the end the liberal government in Moscow considers that the granting of independence to the republics of the North Caucasus – the lesser of two evils. By 2040, all of these republics will be independent. The Russian population there actually will remain, with the exception of the elderly who simply have nowhere to go. However, to stabilize the situation in this way will not succeed. In the North Caucasus will go to war of all against all. The region will be transformed into the likeness of the current Libya. Set down the Islamic terrorist organization, which, with the support of the West will begin to permanently subversive-terrorist war against neighboring Russian regions. The emissaries of these organizations will rush into Russia, to the territory of the Muslim republics, which also deployed a clandestine terrorist war.

Meanwhile, inspired by the example of the North Caucasus, the elites of other Autonomous republics will also demand independence. Start a new parade of sovereignties. In the first stage will proclaim the independence of Tatarstan, Bashkiria, Tuva and Yakutia. The liberal government in Moscow will become paralyzed. To agree to the recognition of the independence of these territories it will not be able, but also to use force to suppress separatism also can not. First, because it will be afraid of new sanctions of the West, and secondly because not confident in the ability and readiness of the army and internal troops like this to restore order. Will start a tug of war between the centre and the republics, as it did in recent years, the rule of Gorbachev.

Meanwhile, local separatists will start to perepodchinenie all of the Republican authorities to set their own rules and ignore the orders and instructions of Moscow. In Tatarstan and Bashkortostan this situation will lead to armed inter-ethnic conflict as residing in the Republic of the Russian population does not want to separate from Russia and take up arms. And Yakutia and Tuva in the year or two actually come out of the subordination to Moscow and become independent de facto. Add to this the situation in the Kaliningrad region, where fueled by the West’s “fifth column” organizes local Maidan demanding detach from Russia and join the EU. On this independence coming fighters from neighbouring Lithuania and Poland, which will begin actions on power capture of the power. Attempt stationed in Kaliningrad Russian troops to counter this will come up against the threat of NATO to use force to “protect civilians”.

By the time the Russian armed forces will be in a pretty sorry state, and they will have nothing to oppose to the NATO ultimatum. Kaliningrad oblast declares independence, joins the EU and then will be divided between Poland, Lithuania and Germany. The majority of the Russian population of the region will be forcibly evicted, and the other part assimilated.

Japan, seeing the weakness of Russia will begin to prepare the ground for the annexation of the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin. Intensify territorial claims with Finland, Norway and the Baltic States. Finland will put forward claims on Karelia and Vyborg, Norway – Murmansk oblast, Latvia, on the Pskov region, Estonia on the part of Leningrad oblast, Ukraine – in the Rostov region and the Kuban, Kazakhstan – Orenburg and Astrakhan region, China on the far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation, USA – Kamchatka, Chukotka and Yakutia.

By 2050, Russia will be a patchwork quilt – the country is “in tatters”. It will lose about half of their current territory. Proclaim the independence of all Autonomous Republic and part of the fields. In a number of them will go to civil war. To forecast the decline of the economy and people’s lives to such a situation does not make sense. It will be a national catastrophe, comparable to the events of 1918-1920. Only this time United West will not allow Russia to rise again, all his forces will be thrown on the rebound defeated geopolitical enemy.

Part of the territory of Russia will be occupied neighbouring States. Some areas will be controlled by UN peacekeeping forces or NATO. Russian nuclear weapons will come under international control and gradually dismantled. The power of the government in Moscow will not extend further, the Central economic district. The collapse of the Russian state will be irreversible. The country will live out the last years of his life.

The saddest part in this scenario expects the Russian people. If the various Autonomous entity on the territory of the Russian Federation will be able to preserve their national statehood (the West will not interfere), the Russian territory will be dismembered. Some of them come under the control of different national entities, where the Russian will be in the position of second-class citizens, as is the case in the current Baltic States or Ukraine. Over time, this Russian population will be partially assimilated and partially destroyed or evicted. In the Russian regions will act of the administration, controlled the international structures, as, for example, in the current Bosnia and Herzegovina.

A significant portion of the Russian population is being forcibly relocated to the far North, where it will be used as cheap labor for mining and maintenance of infrastructure for the supply of raw materials to the West and to the territory Pro-Western client States of the former Soviet Union. The occupation administration will pursue a policy of depopulation of Russian regions by birth control, soldering, and the narcotization of the population, the supply of a genetically modified food grown in the Western agricultural farms, promotion of replacement migration from China and Central Asian countries. By the end of the 21st century Russia will cease to exist and its territory will be a whole new conglomerate of peoples and Nations, controlled by Western civilization and maintain it.

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