Trap-2018: what will appear instead of the reform program

“The current generation of Soviet people will live under communism.” The authorship of this phrase in the program of the CPSU in 1961 is attributed to the employee, the Committee Added Kuskovo. Having written it, he, according to the memoirs of contemporaries, darkly ambiguous said: “This slogan will endure for eternity”.

And indeed, instead of communism, the Olympics came in 1980. Instead of the triumph of market and democracy, can add we, Sochi 2014 winter Olympics and the annexation of Crimea. (And instead of flying to Mars, as noted by one of my friends, there Facebook.) And these “instead of” there are a lot. In particular, instead of the implementation of the Program of Gref took place the arrest of Khodorkovsky, instead of modernization on the Medvedev — protests in 2011-2012, is the implementation of “Strategy-2020” were adopted laws on foreign agents, undesirable organisations, the empowerment of the FSB and about three dozen regulations that can be called repressive.

Neither pack — get a Kalashnikov. What strategy of authoritarian modernization nor write, the output of authoritarianism becomes more, upgrade less.

Logic programs “Stolypin club” and the Center for strategic development Alexey Kudrin is the same as in former years. Enlightened (or taken aback by) monarch (autocrat) iron fist is upgrading, constantly checking their actions with the crib, placed him a smart liberal (or, conversely, dirigisme direction) experts.

Three experiments of exactly this type of part (the Gref program) or completely (all other programs) failed. The reform was carried out or incomplete, or not done, or profane, or laid back, or implemented exactly the opposite. Yes, definitely better to do something and to something good to get prepared than to do nothing. Yes, we must push elbow autocrat, so he wondered how to improve the living environment dear Russians, even if the autocrat believes that, and so it is a miracle as is good, and nothing to touch not necessary, and that everything will turn out like Gorbachev’s perestroika. But, perhaps, for a long time circumstances were so unfavorable for reform/change/upgrade as it is now.

Mass demand for changes there. Again, it is common “instead of”: instead of reforms there came the Crimea. This mass demand for changes and was satisfied. The annexation of significant territory — this hoo what a change. The demand of the elites for change is much stronger than the fear of them and their possible consequences. The implementation of reforms in complex, impossible — rather, we can talk about correction different varieties of policies, and the crossing of nekrasivyh provisions of the programs of dirigiste and liberals. Exactly so now the task is: let’s you stolypins and kudryntsi, as well as the staff of the White house and the ministries of Finance and economic bloc will be engaged in the mating of hedgehogs and grass snakes. And then we will see what you will come out of this. According to Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, these experiments will take from three to five months. However, he did not specify what to count down the start of the experiment. And how will the amendment to the policy. And this is important: because what is not do in our country, everywhere stumble on the prohibition of intelligence interest to the KGB business, the state monopoly (which is almost the same as the interest of the KGB of the business and the prohibition of special services).

It is necessary to open the economy — and it was closed on the basis of the highest strategic-public-interests-of security. We need to allow ordinary people to start their own business — but instead the fruit of dependents: if only to inert but managed electoral “meat”.

And most importantly, because the autocrat of any common products of the expert of the art can even really like. It will endorse them. Or even, as in the case of “Strategy-2020” will encourage authors with orders and medals. But then the paper will go into devices of different levels. Will be criticized, improved, partially forgotten, partially sent to a new upgrade. Exactly — for years — has written a Comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress in the Soviet years. Approved at a level higher than Kosygin. And again improved until the loss of the Soviet regime of the pulse.

In these programs there is the state as a subject and implementer of reforms. As a potential beneficiary of the change. But no person. Or he looms as an abstraction and/or adding value. The human transformation of the score values into something viable and consisting of flesh and blood is possible only by increasing the degrees of freedom. How many businesses — small, creative, effective — could develop in the country, if people in uniform were engaged in the protection of man from the regulatory environment, not overly complicated and hostile regulatory environment from the man!

The state should step aside with all your “national interests”, as measured by the yachts and villas of the individual interested parties. To rebuild a normal environment, to ensure its protection, to deliver the services. Then quietly to retire. It’s like the police in countries with strong institutions: it is not visible in ordinary life, but she is out of the ground, when it becomes necessary. We are all exactly the opposite: the police are visible at every step, cheerfully throws adolescents into paddy wagons or lies in wait to gouge your Bank, but it’s not there and then, where and when it is really needed. This, if anything, an example of mental, cultural, institutional differences between authoritarianism à La Russe and the regimes of those countries that have already implemented all possible Gref’s program.

The diaries of Anatoly Chernyaev, an employee of the international Department of the Central Committee, and then the assistant of Gorbachev, has a record of a remarkable episode December 1978. At the Politburo dispute broke out between predsovmina Kosygin and defense Minister Ustinov. To attract young people in the construction trade school, Kosygin offered to give students a reprieve from the army. “And who will serve in the army?” — objected to Ustinov. “And who will work? Who will carry out the plans?” — stood his Kosygin. Andropov sided Ustinov. Chernenko was looking for a compromise. Brezhnev asked distractedly, “So what do we decide?” Decided to send the project Kosygin for revision in the Council of Ministers.

Almost forty years have passed, but the nature of disputes and even being problems, never solved because they are all “sent back for revision”, remained the same. Elite hang out inside of this matrix is to boost the economy and raise labour force or to fight, putting financial and human resources on the altar of “security.” This frightening occurence of events, episodes, thinking styles, despite the fact that decades have passed, holding the hands of the experts and of decision makers.

This time will appear “instead of” a new reform agenda? What altitude in the area of “state security” will be taken? What adversaries from among the foreign organizations and countries will be “defeated,” and solemnly expelled from the Humanities and turnover? What resources will be filed?

Something just appears “instead of”, but what it will not do is fear the consequences of doing nothing and, therefore, economic liberalization and democratization of public life. Authoritarian modernization in Russia is impossible. Will either authoritarianism or modernization. Obviously need to survive another cycle of writing programs of reform, to understand it. And return to the main — extension of freedom. Otherwise, the slogan of a technological breakthrough, the President of Russia at the St. Petersburg economic forum, as well as the main slogan of the CPSU program, “survive the century”.

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