“The Turks – not a Cossack”: what can be expected from the “superpresident” Erdogan?
Not so long ago we wrote about how presidents have used (or tried to use) changes to the Constitution to strengthen his power. An example of Recep Tayyip Erdogan may warn them to use the constitutional changes the mechanism of a referendum.
However, in our history it was before Erdogan in 2000, Leonid Kuchma organized the plebiscite for pererisovyvali of the Constitution. However, its results were never implemented. In any case, the Recep-Bay showed a bad example to countries where democracy is still young, and the character of the rulers it is not tempered. But it is not the main consequence of the changes is “superpresident” Erdogan.
“Trojan horse” on the banks of the Bosphorus
The referendum in Turkey was definitely the center of attention of the world media during the current week. Local English-language newspaper Anadolu Agency reminds, what are the main results of the referendum. The President will have more authority plus the right to maintain ties with the party that has nominated him, wrote, “AA”, and the post of Prime Minister will be cancelled. The number of MPs will increase up to 600 people, and the age limit for those wishing to run will be reduced from 25 to 18.
Simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in November 2019, while the next will be held in five years instead of four years. Turkey’s President after one term, will be eligible to run for the next. It is assumed that in 2019, and 2024-m the head of state will once again be Erdogan. This means that the Turkish leader had preserved their power by as much as 12 years. And this is not the end of the story. The head of the country gets the sole right to form the government. And to issue decrees which will have the force of laws. Also, the influence of the President on the judicial branch and Prosecutor’s office. As for the army, its weight is decremented due to the elimination of the two military courts.
The Western media embraced such innovations negatively.
Turkey’s President declared victory in a referendum on a new Constitution, which would make his rule more powerful and potentially prolong it’s reign for many years to come. The result of the referendum, which the opposition called fraudulent, promises to turn Turkey into a more democratic and less divided and more religious country than ever before, says American CNN.
“Erdogan, a charismatic, authoritarian populist with Islamization on the agenda, became the centre of the deep divisions that the referendum will make a more violent and destabilizing – continues CNN. – Erdogan is not a leader, able to reconcile. Instead, he ruled, fueling ideological and social differences. He answered the call, even peaceful and democratic, with the fragmentation of the opposition. And have used every opportunity to consolidate his power”. CNN reminds that half the country (48.7% is “24”) in the referendum said “no”, this means that “Erdogan will begin his duties under a cloud of doubt.”
Said “evet” (“Yes” – “24”). 51.3% of participants in the referendum supported the constitutional changes in Turkey. 48.7 per cent – expressed their disagreement with them
And this will only increase the negative trends in Turkey took place earlier. “In 2016, a coup attempt was so helpful to Erdogan that many still raise questions, not if he could conduct them himself. A few hours after the recovery of his power, he began the repression of the stunning scale sending to prison tens of thousands of people and hundreds of thousands of dismissals from universities, courts and Armed forces. But even before that coup in Turkey had jailed more journalists than any other country (…).
At the time, as half the country still hopes to see Turkey closer to the liberal modern West, and looked forward to its accession to the European Union, Erdogan stirs up nationalist and anti-Western rhetoric. The President and his agenda is supported predominantly rural and conservative segments of society. And it is a curse to others. Those citizens who accepted the secularism of Kemal Ataturk, the current initiative of Erdogan to digest hard,” so ends the great CNN editorial entitled “Turkey’s democracy has died” (“Turkish democracy is dead”).
Great material, Erdogan has also dedicated a canadian edition of The Globe and Mail. It recalled that when the current Turkish leader was elected for the first time his opponents saw him as such a Trojan horse with the ability to fail the transformation of Turkey into a secular state, which took place in recent years. “And when the referendum on Sunday was proclaimed a victory for Erdogan, some of those fears became a reality (…). Constitutional changes voted by Turks make of Erdogan’s wrong Sultan Ottoman style as perpetual President like Vladimir Putin in Russia,” notes The Globe and Mail.
The most notable result of the referendum, the article says, will be significantly separated Turkey and stigma, which it faces from its neighbors in Europe and the middle East. “The referendum marks the culmination of the last five years, during which Mr. Erdogan has burnt bridges carefully built during his first decade in power”. His reputation as a unifier of the different layers of society evaporates, against Erdogan says also “counterproductive role in the Syrian war”, and even “inept coup attempt as a pretext to arrest thousands of officers and imprisonment of over 120 journalists.”
The Western press has buried democracy in Turkey. After all, President Erdogan has a habit of imprison dissenters. In particular, and journalists.
The Globe and Mail reminds us that “the citizens and the more educated the Turks decisively rejected the constitutional changes; six of the eight largest cities of Turkey, particularly Istanbul and Ankara, have failed to support Erdogan. These cities erupted in protest on Sunday evening, and from the crowd that filled the streets of Istanbul, heard the chant “Thief, murderer Erdogan”. Change rejected “the Kurds, alawites, Armenians and other minorities, who make up more than a fifth of the population – they strongly said “no”, – writes the edition. At the same time, “Yes,” said the rural areas, and now “the majority of the population will be regarded as the imposition of Anatolian Turks their will on the rest of the country”.
Rural Turkey, the more conservative and traditionalist, have provided their President win the referendum
Meanwhile, all that happened in Turkey, it is highly dissatisfied with the EU. The European Union urged authorities to conduct a thorough investigation of the results of the referendum, reports The Guardian. She quoted the press Secretary of the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, who stressed that in Brussels is very carefully studied all the reports of neutral observers regarding violations observed during the referendum.
The newspaper reminds that after Sunday’s referendum, neither Juncker nor the President of the European Council Donald Tusk spoke with Erdogan. But the last time to congratulate the US President Donald trump, who discussed with him the war in Syria, as well as methods of influence on the Syrian leader Assad. Although the European Commission is concerned about how the situation with human rights in Turkey (which, in fact, slowed down its accession to the EU), and the intentions of Erdogan to restore the death penalty, there is still hope that “Turkey will approach the EU and will not be too fast and too far ahead from us,” writes The Guardian.
Ukrsmi: will not be worse
Meanwhile, while the Western media weep for democracy in Turkey, Ukrainian journalists are optimistic about the future relations of our countries. Not all, however, but the majority believes that the negative consequences for Ukraine from the Turkish referendum should not wait. “Relations with Ukraine is not affected, at least for six months. For us it is important not to interfere in the internal Affairs of Turkey. This will provoke a sharp reaction from Ankara and Kiev is interested in profitable trade and economic relations,” – says an expert on international Affairs of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Mr Will, quoted by “the observer”. Most importantly, he says the Will to Turkey’s position regarding the annexation of the Crimea remained unchanged.
During this time you can not worry, I am sure the Commissioner of the President of Ukraine on Affairs of the Crimean Tatar people Mustafa Cemil.
Affect whether consolidation of power by Erdogan on the Crimean issue? I think Turkey’s position in relation to the Crimea will not change. Erdogan has expressed support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, emphasized, that constantly will maintain the right of Crimean Tatars to the liberation of their land. So I plan no changes in the near future do not foresee, – said Dzhemilev in an interview to the edition “Gordon”.
“At the meeting with Poroshenko and Groisman, Erdogan said that the economy is one thing, politics quite another. That is, Turkey will support economic relations with Russia, but in the political aspect of Turkey’s position is clear: the territorial integrity of Ukraine no not subject to revision,” – said Dzhemilev. At the same time, he added, “Russia will actively support the relationship with Turkey even at the expense of its own economy to hold her closer to him. Moscow will make Ankara a very beneficial economic offer, and Turkey are unlikely to refuse. But Erdogan’s foreign policy of support to Ukraine will remain unchanged. In this I have no doubt”.
“Let’s see how much Turkey has invested in Ukraine in the Islamic Tatar community. And if they were in power some other force, not Erdogan, it is possible that the issues of assistance to the Crimean Tatars to the Turks was not important,” – said the head of the Center islamopedia studies of the National University “Ostrog Academy”, the orientalist Mikhail Yakubovich, communicating with the publication “Commander in chief”.
For Ukraine and specifically for Crimean Tatars is the preservation of Erdogan in power is the continuation of the policy that we have now. Because in the face of Erdogan, it does not say, we have a conditional ally. The steps that Turkey has always done for the Crimean Tatars, was, in principle, quite adequate. Erdogan is positioning itself as a Turkic leader, perhaps, will further strengthen this support. So maybe this will be some benefit, says Yakubovich.
Responding to a question about how to position itself to Ukraine in the conditions, when the democratic world condemns Turkish referendum, Yakubovich noticed that. “This is a big problem as to react all I need. Not so long ago it became known that Erdogan was going to Ukraine. And he loves revealing to be offended, Turkey likes hard sayings, their political culture is accepted. So, Ukraine needs to weigh the pros and cons, that is, to Express their position, but not to overdo interference (in internal Affairs). On the facts of fraud claimed by the opponents of the extension of the Constitution, they still have to prove. It is clear that you can Express concerns about individual things, but to take a clearly critical position is not necessary. This one will not do” – said the expert.
Still, Ukraine can be involuntarily drawn into the stigma, which will put Turkey in the European Union – in particular, because of the idea of Erdogan to restore the death penalty. “Most likely, the situation between Turkey and the EU will deteriorate. Although the Turkish foreign Minister assured that the country would continue towards European integration, but, despite the previous statements of the Turkish foreign Ministry that Germany is the Nazis, it is difficult to understand how they will find common ground with European partners,” – writes in his column on the TSN website Bohdan Yaremenko, Chairman of the Board of the charitable Foundation “Maidan of foreign Affairs”.
And he continues: “Turkey and Ukraine are members of the Council of Europe, in the framework of which abolished the death penalty. In addition, according to the Association agreement with the EU, we are required to conduct a coherent foreign policy with the countries of the European Union. Therefore, Ukraine will have to respond to threats from the Turkish authorities to restore the death penalty. And if the negative consequences of the referendum for Ukraine there will not be, in the long term can be quite the difficult moments between the foreign ministries, which will affect the overall atmosphere of relations between the two countries”.
However, not all bad, because “the West has no unified position regarding the referendum in Turkey. In Europe, they say that the referendum does not meet the standards, and this is obviously close to the country the opportunity to negotiate on the prospects of EU membership. And in the United States, trump congratulated Erdogan on the results of the referendum. In the United States a foreign policy priority, the President has, so congratulations trump is an automatically congratulations from the whole country”, focuses on the website “New times” political analyst Sergei Taran.
Erdogan’s new powers congratulated trump, and it “automatically greetings from across America,” said political analyst Sergei Taran. Collage edition Тrend
RAM also notes the following: “the Main question which we should set in Ukraine – it is not the development of democracy in any country and how this country is geopolitically works with us or against us. We are always very attentive to the position of China in the UN Security Council, because we know that the position of this country can be important for voting by the Security Council to our questions. And it did not seem to pay attention to the level of democracy in China.
Turkey – absolutely the same situation here, no need to invent anything. To understand how Turkey’s interests coincide with our interests. And it turns out that the position of Turkey in recent years is well, just not Pro. The interests of Ankara and Moscow in the region do not match. We have the same with the Turks interests often coincide because Russia is trying to be a monopoly of force in the region, and Turkey in the hamper. Therefore, indirectly helps to our interests. Of course, this does not mean that the friendship between Ukraine and Turkey forever, such geopolitics does not happen. But at least our countries have more common interests than different.”
To conclude this topic on a positive note allows the message from the press service of the President Poroshenko. The head of Ukraine had a phone conversation with his Turkish counterpart and thanked him for his support of independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Also, the leaders “stressed the importance of carrying out in Kiev the Sixth meeting of the Strategic high-level Council” and addressed the “issues of regional and international agenda, in particular concerning the development of the situation in Syria,” adds the Agency “League”.
Therefore, everything will be fine?..