Unfortunately, the year 2018 was not a year of qualitative transformation. High-profile economic reforms that have significantly improved the size of the wallets of Ukrainians, by far, it was not. But to call the year a failure – is also not fair. The very first and the most important victory of the outgoing is macroeconomic stability.
Consequently, GDP growth exceeded three percent, and large contribution to the economy made it Ukrainian farmers. Which, in particular, attracted a record grain harvest is 70 million tons.
Export revenues, which were brought by the farmers, strengthened the exchange rate. As a result, while the torque is 27.5 to the dollar. It should be noted, at the beginning of the year the national currency was worth at 28.5 to the dollar, and the government has budgeted a rate of 29.5.
But the oligarchs pretty spoiled the lives of Ukrainians. Company of Rinat Akhmetov lobbied for higher tariffs for electricity. Were willful attempts to increase tariffs for gas by the companies of Dmitry Firtash.
The structure of Viktor Medvedchuk was set monopoly prices for diesel fuel. AZS Igor Kolomoisky is also in no hurry to reduce the cost of gasoline, although the price of oil on world markets plummeted. As a result, the national Bank to keep inflation within the planned eight percent, failed.
The inflation rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia has exceeded eight percent
Executive Director of the Center for economic strategy Hlib Vyshlinsky noted that Ukraine was able to have controlled inflation. He added that there was a period when prices were rising a bit faster, but overall, the annual inflation rate remained within 10%.
From the positive – the national Bank of Ukraine sent to the elimination of only one Bank. They became the Russian VTB. And, as predicted in the national Bank, for the first time since 2013, the banking system will show a profitable activity.
And all this, mind you, without money from the International monetary Fund. The signing of the Memorandum with the IMF, of course, can be attributed to the current achievements. But a tranche of $ 1.4 billion to spend next year.
Tranche from the IMF, Ukraine will spend in 2019
Chief economist of Dragon Capital Elena Belan said, despite the fact that next year will be difficult from the point of view of the political situation, and from the point of view of the burden of foreign debt payments, it’s much better to have support.
To the biggest failures 2018 interviewed experts attributed to three things:
1. Sabotage of the reform of the State fiscal service.
2. The extension of the moratorium on land sales.
3. Another fiasco with the big privatization.
The government failed to sell a single large object. And even the privatization of Centrenergo, which was a sample of what may finally begin a great privatisation, it did not take place. This suggests that Ukraine is still a risky country for investments
– said the chief editor of “Financial club” Vyacheslav Sadovnichy.
The investment climate continues to suffer from ineffective struggle of the government and law enforcement authorities with the shadow economy and smuggling at the customs, he said. Besides, business is still hard to defend their property rights in the courts.
The shadow economy prevents Ukraine to develop economically
In 2018 abolished the archaic foreign exchange decree of 1993, began the creation of the anti-corruption court adopted new rules of privatization that will make the SOEs more attractive to foreign investors. But all these initiatives will have economic effect only after a year or two, predict our interlocutors.