Photo of Paul KUBANOVA, “SE”
“SE” understands the situation in our group where for guaranteed of getting at least in the play-off matches of the Ukraine national team needs in the remaining two matches the maximum result.
Before the final two rounds of the European selection for the 2018 world Cup with the winners of the all clear only in groups C and H, where the Germans and the Belgians were left to make small formalities. In groups D, F and G are almost the same all defined. Surely someone believes that the Serbs, the British (bitter Croatian experience in selection to Euro-2008) and the Spaniards will not take any points in the last pass match?
The Spaniards, however, need not draw, and home win over Albania. Previously acquired an impressive goal difference-first place guarantee.
Local Zaruba – separately for first place and separately for second – with third parties are expected in groups A and E. group – specific squabble for first place between Portugal and Switzerland at the finish. The loser goes to the playoffs. The Swiss draw will be fine.
And only in our honest company is marked with the letter I, four teams claim first place and the second, eight of the best winners of which will play each other in the playoffs. I recall that when determining the lucky ones end up in the “joints” from the second step are not taken into account matches with the team finishing in last place. In our case with Kosovo.
Now, what do we have?
Option 1. Consider first the prospects of Ukraine to borrow in the first place. Will “default” to believe that the Finns and the Kosovars are our rivals in the Oct beat. Then victory in the two games allows us to work with Croats, and you could say that everything will depend on the games Turkey – Iceland, if it has not already been carried out on 6 October.
Away win in Eskisehir in this case, outputs of Icelanders in the final (victory over Kosovo we have already entered). The draw will need to compare the difference with our. While it is also equal. Next – view the evening of the 6th. The victory of the Turks over charges of Hallgrimsson (don’t forget we still consider our two wins), and then over Finland also gives them in the amount of 20 points, and the difference they have is better than Shevchenko.
Again have to consider the difference. Croats also in this situation be irrelevant.
The first conclusion: who wants to take first place must not lose points with outsiders, making these games the difference and at least not lose out to competitors (but this only applies to Croatia from Iceland) or necessarily to beat them (which is important for Ukraine with Turkey).
Option 2. Ukrainian team plays in Shkodra in a draw and gaining 15 points. Now the final in case of a victory over the Croats a maximum of 18. The Croats and Icelanders in home matches with the Finns and the Kosovars will win and will score at least 19. Therefore, the option with the second place at once disappears – and Andriy Shevchenko may safely send by Andrey Lunin, Nikolai Matvienko, Pavlo Lukyanchuk, Victor Kovalenko, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Victor Tsygankov, Vladimir Shepelev and Artem Besedin at the disposal of Alexander Golovko, the team that October 10 will take their peers from the Netherlands.
Refined statistics can, of course, to say that one of the victory of Croats with the Icelanders over outsiders not guaranteed. But when you consider all the options, we here so much pile up…
Understand that the defeat of Ukraine from Kosovo is not even considered.
Option 3. Victory in Shkodra, a draw with the Croats in Kiev. Total – the same 18 points. For the first place is not suitable, because the Icelanders, even if you lose Turkey, its three points in the home game with Kosovo will take – and they will have 19. The Croats, too, before the Finns beat. And they 19.
With this scenario, you and fourth stay.
The second conclusion: 4 points in two matches we categorically are not satisfied.
Option 4. Access to the playoffs from second place. It is possible (if not, contact the Department of fiction), if we win both games, but we will finish ahead of either the Icelanders (on points in two of his victories, or the Turks with two victories and difference).
Need to weed out one of the second teams in nine groups. We in the games first five (without us – four) lost 10 points (defeat against Iceland and Croatia, a draw with Iceland and Turkey). Took until 11. Beat Croatia – will 14. Goal difference in games with the top five – so far 8:7. With two victories will be at least +3.
Looking to the others. The second team already In the playoffs – there is a couple of leaders of the three lost points in one match. Need to find out who is first and who second. Formality remained for Northern Ireland (group C) and Italy (group G). Can in theory change the outsider in group A and almost certainly in group b, where Latvia should beat Andorra, but the alignment is not affected.
I was only watching the teams that could be second, but certainly not 14 reach. Not to overload you with calculations, just start with the end, where everything is clear. In group H winner Belgium (margin 6 points, and the difference of +23 compared to like competitor), and is the undisputed underdog Gibraltar. Bosnians have matches with teams from the top five 8 points and a goal difference of +2 (but they still play out with the Belgians).
Greece – 10 points, but only one test match left. So maybe the loser should be sought just in this company. There are, of course, variants in other groups, especially where applicants second place have yet to play each other, as, for example, Wales and Ireland, and it is unclear yet who will be the second, but around them a member of our (stress) scenario is unlikely.
All this suggests the third and last. The national team of Ukraine will be satisfied with two wins. 99% of them will guarantee us at least getting into the playoffs and good enough chances to win the group.
But, what about this yesterday, thought William Hill (games Friday) and 1xbet (games on Monday).
Match 1 X 2
Kosovo – UKRAINE 9,0 1,12 23
Turkey – Iceland 2,05 3,3 4,2
Croatia – Finland 1,15 9,0 23
UKRAINE – Croatia 2,75 2,75 2,77
Finland – Turkey 3,92 4,76 1,74
Iceland – Kosovo – – –
But the winner of the group, according to bookmakers (here I take the average) will be Croatia (1,75:1), Iceland (5,5:1), Turkey (8:1), Ukraine (9:1). The first two will include Croatia (1,1:1), Iceland and Turkey (3,25:1), Ukraine (3,5:1).
Eugene BELOZEROV, Sport-Express in Ukraine