The results of the 2018 five geopolitical zagatsurvey Lavrov outlined the foreign policy objectives of Russia to 2018: Iran nuclear deal; terrorism in Syria; crisis
in Ukraine; the DPRK’s nuclear program; the conflict of Palestine and Israel. That successfully managed to resolve?…
Two of the five or the Russian foreign 2018
Author – Alexander Zapolskis
In mid-January, 2018, in summing up the past 2017, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov foreign policy objectives of Russia in 2018 outlined in the form of five clear points: to keep the Iranian nuclear deal; to continue the fight against terrorism in Syria, to resolve the crisis in Ukraine; to defuse the situation around the DPRK’s nuclear programme; to reduce conflict between Palestine and Israel.
On 20 January 2018 big press conference of Vladimir Putin in fact has become a kind of a progress reportthat allows to evaluate not only individual successes or to isolate failures, but, above all, to form the overall picture. It lasted over three and a half hours and covered too many issues to fit into the framework of a single analysis . So now we are talking only about the foreign policy part.
So, Iran. Formally with him have failed. Even taking into account compliance with all conditions Tehran international agreements of the United States from deals worked out than set a dangerous precedent. Iran executes the agreement, however, is subjected to ever-increasing sanctions. It came even to disable a number of its largest banks from the international SWIFT system. The amount of damage to the economy for sure, no one calculated, however, only Iranian oil exports have fallen by 35%, and it is, according to the IMF experts, gave about 80% of all tax revenues in the country. Plus at 60% drop rate of the Rial, which caused significant growth in inflation, further weakening the Iranian economy.
Thus, it looks like Russia with the task of balancing American hegemony has failed. However, the United States, the victory came at a very dear price.
Had to literally twist the arms of the SWIFT manual, thus destroying an important, if not key, element in the West’s financial system — the sanctity of the concept of basic rules, and services. Previously it was thought that the mechanism of international financial transactions to any political pressure absolutely stable. In court to set the fine can be anyone, even another country, but to force the system to deny service . And here, as in the army joke, was that “the sine in a wartime can reach four”, and the result, quite naturally, the European NATO allies do not much like.
The EU finishes work on creating their own, separate from the SWIFT and uncontrollable for the United States in the international system of interbank settlements. By the way, in particular, to use it to continue cooperation with Iran. And this is good as it stimulates the destruction of the collective “transatlantic unity” of the West. It’s one thing when America is in the international arena acting 35-36 trillion (47.3% of total world GDP, even without considering the economies of other countries, strongly confined like the United States of Mexico) and quite another when she can only speak from their own 19 trillion dollars (25%).
In Syria we came out better. Without false modesty, Moscow managed to win an impressive geopolitical victory, by value comparable if not with the capture of Berlin (Washington is not ours), then with the Vistula-Oder operation for sure. Trump officially signed a decree on the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from the territory of the SAR. Although officially the last soldier, “uncle Sam” should leave the country for only 100 days, in fact, the withdrawal is well ahead of schedule.
Staff of the state Department, so do “in 24 hours” escaped. Seeing this, the Kurdish groups have already been started in Rojava protests, accusing Washington of direct betrayal. Strictly speaking, it is, American strategic retreat left the Kurds between two fires and they have already probed soil about talks with Damascus, in order not to be crushed under the treads of Turkish tanks.
But it’s not so much in the Kurds, as in the lesson for the rest of the players that demonstrate the real value of any allied agreements with the United States. America goes not only from Syria, actively probing the soil on holding urgent talks with the Taliban for the formation of a decent external picture for the full withdrawal of us troops from Afghanistan. Plus staggered the American military presence in Iraq.
In other words, the United States begin to exit from the entire region, and this caused serious deterioration in the ruling elite of the country. 20 Dec 2018 officially resigned Minister of defense James Mattis. And not only so, but publicly declaring its strong disagreement with the policies of the President. As is known from open sources with him gone: the head of administration trump General Kelly, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Hayley and the Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff (the equivalent of our General staff), General Joseph Dunford. Trump suddenly having a serious problem with a private army.
Against this background, the absence of outwardly visible success in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not that is lost, but noticeably changes its value. Strictly speaking, the situation at present is virtually in the same position as it was a year earlier. However, the external conditions have changed dramatically.
Israel lost the status of absolute military superiority in the region, guaranteeing him the ability to defeat any adversary (or coalition) in the Arab world. And if TSOHAL technically still able to win a military victory over the armies of neighboring countries, to extract from it a strong political advantage tel Aviv. Moreover, it is not the fact that such aggression in the international arena can, and will want to support and cover US, without whose support Israel risked political isolation.
For the first time in their recent history the Israeli military and political leaders were faced with the inevitability of the development of a new national security strategy requires the development of a stable political compromise with the Arab world.
What this will evolve is hard to say, especially given a century of intercourse with the Arabs, only with the power of excellence. Firewood since that time, tel Aviv mangled a lot, have to rake them with great difficulty. And since the only alternative is the complete disappearance of Israel from the political map of the world, he will inevitably have to seek help from someone “big and strong”. And the choices quite a bit. Honestly, there is not, except for one thing — for some not to go, all roads lead to Moscow. China, with all its economic power, sufficient geopolitical weight still has not, and will not have too long for Israel.
With nuclear weapons of North Korea issue is not technically resolved, too. The DPRK expressed its desire to accede to any of the key international agreements on nuclear safety. Is that the proving ground they have taken. Unnecessary. The tests showed sufficient reliability “products”, both in terms of warheads and their carriers. Now the country can focus on the task of manufacturing and deployment is necessary, in its opinion, the number of missiles for self-defence.
However, the collapse of American world hegemony quietly pushed “the North Korean nuclear question” for a second and almost a third plan. Even with the sharply intensified the process of Korean-Korean rapprochement, in fact, reached the level of a self-sustaining reaction. Usually before the leaders of the two Koreas to negotiate pushed the “great uncle”, and there to discharge clearly trying themselves. To what extent this was facilitated by Moscow, it is hard to say, but the distraction of Washington in other areas certainly benefited from the result. Although, of course, it’s still what is called the untilled field.
Last is the issue of Ukraine. Oddly enough, for us, it is perhaps more important than even the war with the United States. As if someone was there nationalism and fascism, Ukrainians, and Belarus, nevertheless, remains we the people of the brotherly being an integral part of the unity of the Russian world. Although now while this sounds quite incredible. The saddest thing is that the establishment of relations at this stage of the development of events in Ukraine is physically impossible. The patient response to infection must first overcome their own, adopting a staunch immune to it. Only then external assistance can become more efficient. But it had, alas, far.
Moreover, in the near future, there is every reason to expect a serious relapse, if not against the DNI on land, at sea against the Crimean bridge for sure. Judging by that activity with which Kiev is agitating the OSCE to send observers for the next “breakthrough of the Ukrainian Navy ships in the sea of Azov”, the sponsors clearly intend to repeat the idea of “freedom Flotilla” tried in his time to break through to Gaza.
The most unpleasant that it really has a serious chance of success. Unless, of course, the human sacrifices of the international media hype can be considered as such. However, for the current Ukrainian authorities, a similar result seems more than essential. And worst of all, defeat in the middle East the ruling elite of the United States will certainly try to compensate for active attacks in other areas, and the Ukrainian initiative turns out to be her very hands.
So overall, of the five originally stated objectives, has officially been successfully addressed only two: Syria and North Korea. With the rest, formally speaking, we have failed. But actually, in the whole of the circle, 2018 Russia closes definitely good.
Earned on common customs code of the EAEU. Eurasian economic integration on a 14% increase in the volume of mutual trade and even finally moved from the dead point the issues of political integration. In particular, with Belarus. And that without a fraternal embrace from the other side, so at this stage this was predictable a long time ago. There is still a lot of work. But the EEU was joined by China, which has intensified the integration processes throughout the Eurasian continent.
Decades strictly followed in the Wake of American foreign policy, Europe is finally beginning to come out of hibernation, thinking about the issues of their own geopolitical subjectivity and the awareness of its own, separate from U.S. political and economic interests. And they just pushing the European Union towards a rapprochement with Russia.
Although simple, this case will not be accurate, but expect the Olympic record after half a century of coma is clearly pointless. There are too many accumulated internal problems in the economy, politics, world view and global goal setting. So the event there can go at least three very different scenarios, two of which for Russia is unfavorable. But this is probability, which is called, it is possible to work. Importantly, the task of separation of Europe from the United States to implement a managed, even if only until only three plus.
Thus, it should be noted that, even with the “only two out of five” in the overall foreign policy direction, Russia this year has played quite successfully. Somewhat worse than would like, but definitely better than it could be, if our foreign partners at least half of their intended plans. In the international arena, we continue to return a fair share of the former greatness of the USSR. And it can not but rejoice.
Andrew Fursov. A new round of crisis will begin in 2019-2020 year
As built world government. Globalization
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