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The Ministry of Finance will drop the ruble in the new scheme

The Russian government continues to play in the foreign exchange market. He felt that in the beginning of the year the value of the dollar begins to decline, and oil prices almost reached a three-year high, the Finance Ministry again significantly increased the volume of purchases of currency on the free market. This can significantly impact on the ruble.


photo: Alex geldings

In January, the Agency will gain on exchanges of dollars and euros to 257 billion rubles. A month earlier, the size of the interventions was 53 billion less. By itself, the increase in the volume of currency purchases is unlikely to cause damage to the ruble, but in combination with new anti-Russian sanctions, which Washington has threatened to declare until February, it is able to reverse the process of strengthening of the Russian currency.

The volume of daily currency interventions, which the Ministry of Finance intends to carry out from January 15 to February 6 of this year, will be not less than RUB 15.6 bn on the day.

The “wood” in 2014, released in the “free float” — the government ceased to bail out the ruble interventions, leaving him at the mercy of stock exchange speculators. Many predicted that the Kremlin has thus doomed the currency to a nightmarish hassle — interest dollars from ordinary citizens always looked in the eyes of officials unreasonable.

However, this calculation was premature. The cost of the “wood” is not only recovered after the protracted failure of the end of 2015 — beginning of 2016, but started to gain extra points.

“The goal now set by the representatives of state power, is to increase oil and gas revenues when the quotes of “black gold” will be defined in below forecast levels,” — said a leading analyst AMarkets Artem Deev.

“In 2018, the Finance Ministry will buy foreign currency for SWF 2 trillion rubles. This additional oil and gas revenues when oil prices are $54-55. At $60 per barrel, the volume of currency purchases will amount to 2.8 trillion rubles — much more than the government is going to be postponed until “better times” when a barrel will exceed $60,” notes our expert.

However, so far, even despite the rise in raw materials, the Ministry of Finance procures currency, using the depreciation of the dollar. It is really an opportune moment. Perhaps it is a signal for the speculative dollar securities, so that later, after the official information about their movement in the market, they were able to score as increasing and decreasing trends.

“The interests of ordinary consumers, as always, will be on the second plan”, — the expert believes.

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