The Ministry of economy spoke about the prospects of GDP growth in 2018 – 2021
23:54 Tue, 11 Dec 2018 Telegraph UKRINFORM Photo: pixabay Business news: the economy Ministry has kept the forecast of GDP growth in the years 2018-2021.
The economy has kept the growth forecast of GDP by the end of 2018, at 3.1%, in 2019 – 3%, in 2020 by 3.1% in 2021 3.9%.
About it reports a press-Department service.
“The Ministry has held a discussion on issues of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting among the leading experts in the field of forecasting of public and private sector. The results of the discussion, the economic development Ministry published its latest edition of “Ukraine: prospects of development. The consensus forecast” (December 2018). The experts who participated in the discussion of the macroeconomic forecast, expecting GDP growth at 3.1% for FY 2018, 3% in 2019, 3.1 percent in 2020 and 3.9% – in 2021,” reads the message .
In General, these estimates of the growth rate of real GDP stayed unchanged from the previous estimate in September, the consensus forecast, noted in the Ministry.
The most significant internal risk for the domestic economy, which were proposed to the experts for review and assessment were the following: persistence of low credit activity of commercial banks; considerable increase of tariffs for gas for the population; the aggravation of the situation with employment (a gain factor of labour migration and refugees); strengthening of devaluation tendencies at the monetary market.
Among the external risks are most significant in 2018-2021 left: gain of hybrid threats to national security of Ukraine, the deficit of foreign funding and shrinkage of possibilities of access to international capital markets, narrowing of the external markets due to high competition, strengthening of devaluation tendencies at the monetary market, the persistence of low credit activity of commercial banks substantial increase in gas tariffs for the population.
According to experts, to achieve sustainable economic development of Ukraine is a necessary transition in long-term investment model of development of economy, which will have a sustained high growth rate of 6-7% based on the quality of structural shifts. This direction is consistent with the objectives of sustainable development, which Ukraine has committed itself to implement.
As you know, the consensus forecast is the average value of the main forecasted indicators of economic development of Ukraine, which is calculated as the median on the basis of expert assessments of survey participants-leading specialists in the field of macroanalysis and forecasting.
As reported, the frequency of systemic banking crises Ukraine entered the top three leading countries in the world.
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