Financial mega-regulator in Russia, Central Bank, decided to renew the programme, which will be issued coupon bonds of 150 billion rubles. The purpose of this act is to improve the relevance of government debt securities on the open market. Throwing in exchange for such an impressive amount of borrowed funds, mortgage payment obligations for which the state may encourage investors to their buying. However, such intervention the ruble can cause additional collapse of the Russian currency and the exchange rate “wooden” before the end of summer will fall below 80 rubles per dollar. And the Euro, in which not all have time to believe, generally turning into the most liquid and popular banknote in the world.
In August for the first time in six years, the Central Bank will begin to place its own bonds, attracting Russian banks available funds in rubles. First occupancy is scheduled for August 15. During the auction, investors will be offered the coupon paper in the amount of 150 billion rubles, the circulation of which is over 3 months. Their returns will be linked to the key rate of the Central Bank, which is currently 9%.
Until recently, this operation was, if not forbidden, but not welcome on the Russian monetary market. However, in June the state Duma adopted a law lifting the restrictions for issue of coupon bonds of the Central Bank. Previously, the main source of withdrawal of “extra money” the banks were Deposit auctions. As of 31 July, the total volume of means of banks on Central Bank accounts exceed 670 billion. Most of them have made deposits for up to seven days — that is, short-term deal.
This situation must be urgently corrected. However, if the Central Bank efforts to rescue the falling exchange rate of the ruble due to these measures, the market will perceive incorrectly, then the ruble will not be strengthened, and go downhill. According to the Director of analytical Department of “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaeva, the surplus liquidity present in the banking system, will ensure good demand for the new tool, which should become an alternative to currency speculation, that is the game against the ruble. “Yield linked to the key rate of the Central Bank will raise its importance to the overall financial system and the real sector in particular. The Bank of Russia is the printing press. The obligations of the Ministry of Finance can be defaulted, and the bonds of the Central Bank is excluded. The regulator will in any case be able to produce as much money as necessary for the redemption of coupon liabilities”, — the expert believes.
According to experts, the ruble in the near future will put pressure on completely different factors. According to the Deputy General Director of Finam Yaroslav Kabakov, the current weakening of the ruble due to a number of objective reasons. “The adoption of the United States the next package of sanctions against Russia and the subsequent exchange of diplomatic blows — this is a real factor affecting the ruble. Those efforts have cooled the ardor of investors who invested in ruble-denominated assets in expectation that the President trump the relations between our two countries are normalized. Can not forget about the holiday season. The Russians are going abroad and the demand for currency is growing. Are traveling more than last year — people are deceptive decided that the situation in the economy has stabilized and it is possible to plan revenues and expenses. Played the role of may frosts and cold summer the harvest will be reduced, will increase the price of vegetables, and thus inflation in General, which is a negative for the national currency. If earlier it was assumed that at the end of the year the course will be around 57-58 rubles per dollar, now, we can expect 61-62 ruble per “green”. However, it is possible that all these factors together can lead to an increase in “green” to 70-80 rubles.
According to financial analysts Gerchik&Co Victor Makeev, now is not talking about against the dollar and the ruble, and the collision of the dollar and the Euro. “The vulnerability of Russia’s currency is visible in comparison with oil prices, which are rising. The growth of prices for “black gold” ruble reacts poorly, partially retracing losses against the Euro. Now the question is this: should I buy euros? Comes into play another factor on the basis of which a reviewing the expected equilibrium price: slow the actions of the Federal reserve regarding raising interest rates. Until 2014 the highly unstable GDP statistics and the industrial production in France, Italy, Spain and Greece. Only Germany showed stable numbers. After 2014, the year statistics is more or less stable, supported by economic stimulus and low interest rate, which also plays in favor of the Euro. From the point of view of the trader the Euro and the dollar vulnerability of the Russian currency is visible in the correlation with oil prices, which has always been a fairly close relationship. The growth of prices of “black gold” ruble reacts weakness, partially retracing losses against the Euro and against the dollar.”
In this regard, according to experts, an attachment to the end of the summer in a different currency than the Euro, looks a bit rushed. Therefore, people who have left funds not only for recreation, it is worth considering not to shift their savings in the European currency, in order to save finances for Christmas vacation.