The geopolitical results of 2017. Russia wins!The outgoing year has been truly revolutionary. The plans of a World Government to establish a New World
Order are collapsing, along with alliances held a decades. At the head of the positive wave of change is
Unwritten can’t read
Author Rostislav Ishchenko
The people live badly, that most of them seem to live well, but do not give evil leaders. For example, the peoples of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union had consistently interfered with the tsarist government, and then deviants from the course of the party, then party and finally, the oligarchs. The tsarist government was supposedly protecting the interests of landowners and bourgeoisie. Interestingly, it overthrew the landlords and the bourgeoisie, and then it turned out that everyone became worse off. Even the standard of living of the proletariat, on whose behalf the CPSU(b) was carried out by the dictatorship, somehow, fell .
When by the mid 70s the standard of living in the Soviet Union began actually differ from the standard of living in the Russian Empire (dictatorship of the proletariat was abolished, the war ended, the house was built, hunger won, and illiteracy, which never disappeared and will never disappear, called the universal compulsory secondary education) people suddenly was indignant with that in the canteens of the Communist party is in a couple of varieties of sausage morethan the “factory canteen” and decided that “unfair system” should be dismantled. And again, as soon as the “unfair system” were removed, people got chicken in oschip. Then you had the civil war, unemployment, gangsterism. In General, in the last century dashing 90-e a little than differed from “the lovely 20’s”.
Once all is said and done (the government regained control over its own territory, bandits are partially behind bars, partly shot, people working, social programs restored, the standard of living is more than comparable to the West, to which some 15-20 years ago looked like a gopher out of the hole floating in the sky of the Falcon and even the oligarchs are the state managers) again appeared interlayer unhappythat know how to return the “Golden age” of universal justice.
This inconsistency does not surprise me. I didn’t mention when I wrote about ignorance, covered by the Fig leaf of universal compulsory education. In any society there is a University that with fish carts coming to St. Petersburg from Arkhangelsk, for I do not imagine myself without science is Fonvizina Mitrofanushka who teach do not teach, but the door will still be the “adjectival because it to his place added.” The latter is much more
In societies where they are not forced to learn, they are from childhood is going to sell pies with hare and some dotorgovalsja to “poluarshinova Lord”, Generalissimo, Admiral his serene Highness Prince Menshikov. Where education is compulsory (or in fashion) they have to pore over the Desk. Instead of benefits that they can bring, doing a craft or tillage, risking their lives in the development of the wild land or on the battlefield, they are sitting on the neck of the parents, to 18-20, and now and 25-30 years to grind out diplomas and dissertations, reducing eventually the General level of educated class, turning academic institutions into sinecures for mediocrity and perverting the society’s understanding of scientific knowledge.
Besides all this, such people, with a certificate of availability of knowledge, but without knowledge, as such, it is always best aware of two or three simple solutionsthat should establish universal happiness, and planetary justice. Typically these solutions start with “accelerate”, then follows “plant” and ends with all the “shoot”. These people are not even aware that their “ways” has long been known, and not used only because and as long as and until the country is run by true professionals. Professionals who know that life is much more complicated than it seems, and the results are in politics don’t happen from today to tomorrow. They have to achieve years or even decades
While the society was not information, the problem is fans simple solutions were not sharp. The “experts” who believe that “have plenty of land, it is only necessary that all worked, not in the capitals of sat, and justice was” under Soviet rule, and sovereign Emperor, there were no less than now. Only podium they had received.
And now there is the Internet, social networks and even television dictate fashion not the “International panorama” with Bovin or “9th Studio” Zorin, and on countless talk shows in which problems from the family to global are solved by people who are not able to articulate at least one phrase.
As a result, the masses are finding out that simple solutions that revolve in their head it’s not nonsense, “they said on TV that right.” If “experts” were engaged only in domestic policy, there would be no problems. They could in a dozen generations to solve and not to solve the problems “how to restore the Soviet Union” and “which branch of the Romanovs has the legal rights to the Russian throne“. It would not hurt anyone. If a person thinks he’s a chicken and begins to eat grain, it is a bit funny and a little pity. But when he begins to imagine all the other chickens, and a cook, and in his hands he’s got a real axe is having problems
Similarly, problems arise when the proponents of simple solutions invade the sphere of international relations. And lately, especially in the Wake of the pride of the Crimea and conflicting feelings associated with the war in Donbass, “foreign Affairs experts” on the Internet became more than a “punitive psychiatry” of the USSR were caught Napoleon.
Domestic policy is a very complex game, with a non-zero sum and mixed results of any decision. It’s always force involved, having diametrically opposed interests. The definition and retention of the main line, not only to guarantee the compromise of the main political groups and not interfering with the authorities, but also the dynamic development is not a trivial task. It turns out the few talented politicians. Good at brilliant units. The rest, if not hurt too much.
Foreign policy is even more difficult. It is affected by absolutely all the political, economic, cultural, etc. factors. But other than that, it is a battle against a group of sovereign opponents, each of which is equal to your strength, and may be superior to you. At the same time, action is possible and even correct from the standpoint of domestic policy, not always equally so, from the point of view of the external policies.
Fans of simple solutions that seems so obvious that we should just spit on US and the rest of our enemies , and to live as the DPRK, the limitations of his just don’t realize that for the DPRK are at least China and Russia (what does it mean USA experienced in the 1950-1953), and no one is behind us, we have “Moscow is behind us”. And many of our allies will turn away from us and quietly go to another camp at our first serious mistake. Not because they are bad, because in international politics, every man for himself, and you and I are friends only until it is profitable.
Therefore, I say, as a huge achievement, “mutually beneficial agreement”. Only mutual benefit and exists only while it is a guarantee of sustainability of any Union. “Brotherly” feelings disappear as easily as they arise. 15 years (1945, 1960) was enough for Eastern Europe to the deification of the Soviet soldier-liberator, go to the state deaf discontent of the “Soviet occupation”. Hungary 1956 I don’t believe there was a Nazi insurgency. I mean countries where the population was really loyal and are “disappointed in socialism”, having received less than expected (or felt that the West could give them more). And disappointment in the Soviet Union was gripped wide segments of the population. Not that they fought, but quietly blaming. And in less than thirty years, they’ve happily made their “velvet” (and not) of the revolution, the idea of which was the same as that of the Ukrainian Maidan: “get out od Russie” (or from the Soviet Union).
Characteristically, now the allies start as rapidly to diverge from the US. A few more experienced Western Europeans, statehood which, unlike the American, has more than a century, and Millennium, seek to free ourselves from unnecessary ballast became allies. Incidentally, this is an important point. Usually the winner is the one who goes and the player who tries to get hold of.
For example, the United States, believe that the position of global hegemon cannot be abandoned without catastrophic consequences for the American economy and statehood. In many respects they are right. Now it really is. Another thing is that, first, they could hold the position of hegemony for a longer time, and then leave it soft and without adverse consequences for themselves, if understood and accepted the inevitability of such change, when it really became obvious (about twenty years ago). Secondly, with all the catastrophic breakup with the position of the hegemon, hold her, even in the medium term, is not possible. Moreover, the catastrophic attempts to hold the position exceeds the catastrophic consequences of its abandonment.
The situation with America and gives us another excellent example of the influence of internal, including economic, policy on the external part of the American elite realized the need for a radical way out of the vicious circle by starting negotiations about handing over the position of hegemon is not yet too late. They were able to hold the presidency of the trump. But they were unable to establish control over the entire American political system. On the contrary, the system began gradually to dissolve their henchmen, turning a “revolution trump” in “the evolution of the tramp”.
Now trump and his team continue to struggle for power with team Clinton. Thus, traditional American elites imposed on supporters of the reforms on its agenda. The struggle for power are in traditional shapes and with traditional slogans and terms indicating a desire for the traditional priority of preserving the hegemony at any cost. Thus, at this stage, regardless of the tactical success of trapistov (and there are quite a lot of them) hegemonists win strategically. They have achieved (on the words. Approx. Rouen) confirmation of American consensus on the need to maintain hegemony and that Russia and China are the main obstacles on the way.
We can say that it charges trump for what he did not dare to radical violence with their opponents. But this is a wrong assessment. He did not have sufficient resources for radical solutions. In the case of an open confrontation he quickly lost. Now he’s made the transition of the party, which he tried to skharchit at the beginning, a long middle game with a complex position. It gives a chance to him, and nominated his team to win in the future.
This is the maximum that he could achieve, but it’s not enough for the United States. As a result of the transition of the party hegemonists/trumpety in a protracted positional game America is losing the main thing — time. The world can no longer wait for the US will be determined. Most of the processes that dictate a change to the existing political-economic system is already running, and the lion’s share of them launched the U.S. trying to win at the expense of chaos in global political space, and the losers, the result is a more subtle game of Russia. He who is not able to actively participate in these processes, the more influence the ways, methods and means of resolving the crises is clearly inferior.
For today’s arena of bifurcation stretches a huge strip from the Atlantic to the Pacific ocean. It covers all of Europe, North Africa and the middle East, the Asia-Pacific region (APR) and, separately, Ukraine, because along with US there trying to play the EU itself has already become an arena outside of the game.
What was the US trying to achieve here five years ago?
It was important for them to create Russia unilaterally locked position in Ukraine, linking it here resources. Received due to this freedom, the United States was planning to finally dislodge Moscow from North Africa, the Balkans and the greater Middle East. At the same time positions in these regions were to lose and the EU, which had bogged down in the conflict with Russia over Ukraine.
China was planned to reach an acceptable agreement under pressure. The success of the United States in this direction have also had to contribute to the coherence of Russia in the Ukrainian question. Resources to support China just would not be enough, and one by one the celestial Empire could not stand up. At least, the US were ready for political (military flavor) confrontation with China. Beijing has territorial disputes with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, India. Washington was someone to rely on in the region to organize China’s “sweet life” for many years.
As for the EU, the United States was planning to drastically increase its military-political and economic control of the European Union, in fact, translating it from allies to vassals. This would contribute to a General worsening of the international situation, tough confrontation (on the verge of a military confrontation between the EU and Russia in Ukraine), the loss of EU positions in Africa and the greater middle East and its displacement from the Asia-Pacific markets.
Achieved economic, political and military blockade of Russia (with the penetration of the US and NATO in Central Asia) was to undermine the military and economic capabilities of Russia and in 10-15 years to make its defense capabilities (including nuclear weapons) outdated and irrelevant.
You can, of course, to lighten up and to weave something like that had the Russians not had a failure (though suffered no less than others), and it is possible to recognize that the US plan was, though complex in execution too hard to manage (which also contributed to its failure), but not stupid. Moreover, he had the chances of successful implementation.
The EU was involved in a disastrous for him “colored” projects in North Africa, Ukraine and the middle East. Public opinion in Russia very sharply reacted to the actual occupation of Ukraine by the West and demanded retaliation, either in the form of direct sending troops, either in the form of a transparent of support for the liberation struggle of the local anti-fascists. Because of organizational and political weakness of the latter was not immediately obvious, Russia almost became involved in the Ukrainian campaign.
The Kremlin was saved only by its traditional commitment to formal compliance with international law. The unwillingness of the ruling elites of the South-East of Ukraine to act according to the Crimean scenario on their own. Their desire to be caught and enforced to the active actions of the Russian paratroopers, which began almost stopped the surgery. To legitimize the intervention of Russia could not street demonstrations “people’s Governor” and the official decisions of legitimately elected representative bodies. Then the notorious letter to Yanukovych played.
It is possible that in this case, another betrayal of the Ukrainian elite has saved Russia from major trouble. In any case, the Ukrainian card was played quite differently, as planned Washington. Today he is in Ukraine unilaterally blocked position. And that the resources of the West Kiev binds (though not as large as it was planned to constrain Russian).
Moreover, if for Russia the situation in Ukraine on the background of victories in Syria and relations with China, the creation of a situational Alliance with Turkey and Iran, which threatens to escalate into a new stable configuration of the middle East, has gone by the wayside, for the EU, Kiev, with its regular requirements of financial and political assistance, over-the-top corruption, facing the brink of civil war confrontation between the winners of the “revolution of dignity” and provocations in the gas and energy sector is a major pain.
Since the position of the USA in Ukraine are not inclined towards constructivism, the European Union has increasingly separate to negotiate with Russia on a wide range of issues. In this regard, escalates the confrontation between the Pro-American Eastern Europe and seeking to preserve the sovereignty of the Western. The latest initiative of Berlin and Paris, aimed at creating a European army and the transformation of the EU into a United States of Europe aims to completely eliminate the military-political influence of the US and its Eastern European allies in Europe. Paris and Berlin need a free hand in global politics.
Thus, the United States bogged down in Ukraine, and in Europe. The position seems to be in their hands, but, like Napoleon in Moscow and Vologda they understand that the longer they hold them, the more you lose.
The same goes for the situation in Syria. There, to the end of the year, Washington is trying to rely on the Kurds of the SDS, supporting their separatist sentiments and pushing for war with Assad. However, of key regions of his henchmen pushed, control over transit routes, the US has lost the bet on the Kurds already quarreled Washington and Ankara and, accordingly, has strengthened the Russian-Turkish-Iranian Alliance. And here too, the United States bogged down in a disadvantageous position, which is expensive to maintain and impossible to quit.
Even in the relations between the US and China there is something like this. Though Beijing and more vulnerable to American economic pressure than Russia, but political and military adventures the U.S. has led Washington to the brink of another locked position. Now Trump, who threatened almost to erase the DPRK from the face of the earth in a single rocket launch, it is necessary either to get involved in a military conflict with unpredictable ending, or patiently endure undermined his prestige and the prestige of the United States, rocket for rocket and demonstrating that the DPRK is able to deliver a warhead anywhere in the United States. While the U.S. has a chance here to be turned out and not get bogged down, but a campaign of pressure on Beijing, then, should be considered lost, and with it all of Southeast Asia.
This year in Russian foreign policy.
But this is the result of five years of hard work. In General a lot more, but we are counting with the first interference of Russia in an active phase of the Syrian crisis. It was the last moment when the US could still choose between negotiation and confrontation. They chose confrontation, and they lost.
But they still intend to recoup. For this, they need to get out of created by them positional deadlocks with minimal losses. It is not so much about material losses as possible irreparable reputational and moral losses.
The situation in the middle East, they already can not change. So they have to go save face. Judging by recent actions, they decided to “throw under tanks” of the Kurds and Israel. The recognition of Jerusalem as not only exacerbate the Arab – Israeli relations, but also inter-Arab contradictions, and the struggle for leadership in the Islamic world. This gives you the chance to save the situation in the middle East is unstable. Syrian-Kurdish war in this situation would be useless and the US will try to change your refusing to help the Kurds, acceptable entry conditions from the game.
Similarly is the situation in Europe. Here’s going to burn Ukraine. If you carefully listen to what I said not too smart, but too aware , the US representative to the UN Russian media, which the whole intelligence be replaced (judging by the sources and content of extracted information), it turns out that Washington is going to use Ukraine against Russia wherever he can, but has no plans to interfere in the internal Affairs of Kiev (where there is a power struggle between Poroshenko and Kolomoiskiy/Tymoshenko and company). The United States is even going to officially supply weapons to Kiev.
That is, Washington still that this weapon can be used even in the civil war in the Donbass, and in the civil war in Kiev. For US the main thing is that Ukraine does not subside. Warring with itself and disintegrating Ukraine, they will try to use it to blackmail Russia and the EU, the possible destabilizing influence of this decaying state. The Ukrainian factor still allows America to keep its military presence in Europe (mostly Eastern). Hence the US will try not to just walk away, save face, as from Syria. Warring with herself Ukraine, they will try to reset to balance Russia and the EU to at least partially achieve their initial goals: linking resources and the imposition of confrontation. In particular, they will try at the expense of the Ukrainian crisis to help Eastern Europe once again increase the influence on EU policy (at least on the Eastern policy).
In Central Asia, the United States is not enough free resources, but if some of the States of the region, the situation will be favorable for intervention, they will necessarily intervene. This is another way to divert attention and link resources from both Russia and China.
Moscow, most likely, in 2018, will continue the successful policy of wearing down the US. At the same time, with increasing power, international prestige and confidence of Russia, should increase the number quick security responses. But they will not play a major role in Russian politics. As was the case until now, the main will be inconspicuous and unspectacular diplomatic efforts. In the end, the main task of Russia not to get involved in direct confrontation with the USA, albeit from an advantageous position and force the United States continue to lose power, prestige and allies on secondary lines.
The door for the negotiations to achieve a mutually acceptable compromise with Russia, too, will keep open. In the end, every confrontation ends with agreement. The farther side was drawn into a confrontation, the more difficult to reach agreement. Therefore, the sooner negotiations start, the better. However, the guard of patriots regularly confuse negotiations and compromise with unforced concessions and surrender. But, as we pointed out above, happens to them not from malice, but because of General ignorance, coupled with the acute lack of intellectual.
Battle for the middle East on the eve of the defeat of ISIS. Russia, USA and other countries
Survival course in the new dark ages. Andrei Fursov
A more detailed and diverse information about the events occurring in Russia, Ukraine and other countries of our beautiful planet, you can get on the Internet-Conferences, ongoing online “Keys of knowledge”. All of the Conference – open and absolutely free. We invite all interested…