How the country will survive the transition to world oil prices?
Apparently, the Belarusian authorities are preparing for the end of the rental economy. How the country will survive the transition to world oil prices?
Recently, Lukashenko said that Belarus will strive to supply the Russian market only 30-40% of the required amount of oil, and the rest borrow from other States.
Found the media, this target parameter is set for 2024, when the Russian oil will cost Belarus at the world price.
Some experts believe that this situation could mean the end of the rent-seeking economy: until now, due to the supply of cheap Russian oil and further sale of derived products of it, the Belarusian government received a substantial part of budget revenues.
Economist LEU Marholin in the comments UDF.BY noted that he understands the logic of the Belarusian authorities who want to reduce oil supplies from Russia.
“Once the price of crude oil in 2024 will be the market, the big difference is not where to do the delivery. Shipping from other countries will cost slightly more expensive, but it can be neglected. If the market price everywhere, then why should Russia give a bonus in the form of purchase of large size (up to 24 million tons of oil per year), the more do not want to provide benefits?”, said Margolin.
With regard to the situation, which will be the Belarusian economy after the transition to market oil prices, the economist believes that it will be difficult.
“It will be difficult. For example, the export of our machinery every year and so is shrinking and now it is likely to remain even without subsidies. It is obvious that the country needs reforms. Maybe someday Lukashenko (or successor person) ripe for their implementation. Otherwise it will be very hard. The Belarusian economy is already stagnating, and it can take a long time – years, even decades,” says Margolin.
Will it be possible for the authorities to maintain the current social model?
“In my opinion, it is almost a trace. No health, no education there is no de facto social. And the remaining will be truncated”, – said the economist.