The may decree is a program of the CPSU today, whatever may be said about the Prime Minister-Minister Dmitry Medvedev — and he in November 2018, when the government considered the long-term forecast up to 2036, vigilantly warned against that vision of the future awakened the same emotions as the program of the CPSU. The purpose of the may decree, of course, more modest. But what leaders are and the goal. On the other hand, as for the may decree any look, it promises a bright future so that looking at it from today’s everyday life without sunglasses is dangerous. You should look for another similarity. The main purpose of the program of the CPSU — and it is as much by the appearance of “developed socialism” obscures the task to build communism “in the life of the current generation”, as formulated Nikita Khrushchev in 1961 — quite quickly ceased to believe and the members of the Communist party and its leaders, not to mention non-party citizens. Whether you believe in the implementation of the may decree the present top officials?
Under a microphone or a camera in each of them, of course, will angrily like the machinations of the “fifth column”, to reject even the idea that the decree could not be implemented, and strongly emphasize that it “on its site,” all will be met and exceeded. Well, if not at the microphone, or when it directly may not affect decree? An interesting answer can be obtained if to compare performances at the just past the Gaidar forum first Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov and Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin.
Siluanov made the reality of the implementation of the may decree a leitmotif of his speech. He compared the decree 2018 at its may same predecessor from 2012 and found numerous organizational advantages that have emerged over the past six years. “What was missing in the past six-year period for the implementation of the goals set was in 2012?” — has asked first Deputy Prime Minister. And he answered: “Not enough hard control system, vertical”.
We must pay tribute to Siluanov, managerial hierarchy he interpreted not in Martinet. Difference from 2012 is that now there are national, Federal and regional projects, “development” and “specific activities to be monitored, everything is tracked in a specific system.” Otherwise built and the funding system. If earlier almost all the money to complete the may task was to provide regional budgets by cutting other expenses, now of regional offices is taken only 60% of the funds. In General terms this looks like this: until 2024 from regional budgets to Finance the current the may decree will be sent to about 4 trillion rubles from the Federal — about 9 trillion.
According to Siluanov, the administrative infrastructure the implementation of the may decree is prepared. Left to run the infrastructure for those same trillions. This raises the obvious question: will these trillions in stock? According to the logic of the may decree, they will appear, if the Russian economy will grow, and the rate above 3% of GDP per year.
Now let’s listen to what was said at the Gaidar forum Maxim Oreshkin. He admitted that at the beginning of the budget three-year plan the output of the Russian economy the growth rate of “close to 3%” “difficult”. Why? . Answer: the solution of the problem “is complicated by external risks.” Next question: if the burden of the execution of the may decree is passed on 2022-2024 years, where is the guarantee that the “external risks” and then not undo the solution to the problem? Answer translation: “Source of growth for us is not the external world — when it comes to economic dynamics, and sanctions history, and trade wars… to Pull the Russian economy can only, in the conditions of severe demographic — due to investment growth and productivity growth”.
Then the condition of execution of the may decree a repetition of the Russian economy legendary achievements of Baron Munchausen. Work? According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, productivity growth will fall in 2019, amounting to 1.3% after 1.4% in 2018. Acceleration expected in 2020, when productivity will grow by 1.9%. By 2022, the figure will reach 3.2%, and by 2024 will fall to 3.1%. Even if the forecast comes true, the chances that the desired growth will be achieved — and without them the may decree as impracticable as the program of the CPSU — to put it mildly, small.
It turns out, . objected Siluanov. Managerial infrastructure to implement the decree not everything. May not be enough of the main resources. And no one is to blame. Siluanov, first Deputy Prime Minister, what I could have done. A. first, for external risks is not responding. And secondly, the severity of the situation he promptly outlined. If we have to seek experience to Munchausen, it is obvious that the situation ceases to be regular. In fact, from the “Samogitian” to open the transition to a mobilization economic policy models — a half-step.