For the dictator come on hard times.
The uncertainty of the results of the Belarusian-Russian negotiations on the supply of energy and a “deeper integration” will test the strength held in Belarus, “economic policy,” analysts say the international rating Agency Fitch Ratings.
Is there any danger for the Belarusian economy? As the authorities plan to compensate for budget losses?
Senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub in the comments zautra.by agrees with the conclusions made by experts of Fitch Ratings.
— Here the most important word is “uncertainty”. Indeed, nobody knows when and what the outcome of our next oil war with Russia. The best option would be if we agreed on the prices given the award for the supply they want. It is obvious that if any alternative supplies of oil will be more expensive than from Russia, and subject to the tax maneuver and taking into account conservation prize of the Russian oil suppliers.
In any case, this will mean a reduction in direct revenues from the export of petroleum products, the decline in revenues of the refinery, and therefore the taxes they pay to the budget. So that will be a hard year.
— Has that ever happened before in the history of relations between Belarus and Russia, by February had not been signed the contract on the supply of energy?
There was a year when oil agreed by the end of the first quarter. There were times when it was not the Russian oil and we were trying to replace her Venezuelan, Azerbaijan. Of course, it was all expensive, complicated logistics, long delivery times, but then were said to be. That is, technical alternatives were before, but they never were the more profitable, but at least comparable in price with the Russian oil.
— How in General, the Belarusian economy dangerous decrease in revenues from the export of petroleum products?
It’s hard to say because there are no figures, it would cut the income, and it is not because no one knows whose we will continue the oil and at what price. The second uncertainty — how the government will respond to the reduction in oil revenues. If the government go on the path of reforms, reducing the wastage in the form of subsidies and benefits of unprofitable enterprises, this will be one story. If the reform is not if you will try to collect more taxes with a lively and efficient part of the economy to another.
— The authorities are going to compensate losses?
— While they have plans for something to replace at all. This can be judged according to a recent statement of the Minister of Finance that the oil war is not a reason to revise the budget.
Another thing, if this story will last till the end of the first quarter, then the possible revision of the budget, his sequester, in particular, the reduction of its costs. But in the current year are unlikely to step on the throat of social expenditure. Before the election tries to keep everything as it is. Maybe even, as planned, to increase the income of state employees. After the elections again might be a totally different story: when the support of the population is not so relevant, it may result in lower average salaries in the country, as well as rising prices. The planned increase in child benefit and minimum wage the money in the budget laid before. Their lack of can become tangible through the quarter. While there is unused money of the surplus from previous years.
— Has voiced the proposal in the event of short supply of oil to get rid of refineries. Is it real?
— Given the attitude of Lukashenko’s “family silver”, this is an extreme measure. In fact, in our economy normal operating company is a refinery and the companies producing potash fertilizer. Then there’s the question of price. On the one hand, the ruler always says ready to sell, if there are normal offers, but he has a very peculiar understanding of what price is normal. So the sale I don’t feel real.