Sad forum in Davos, or call a crisis – and he’s not coming!

From year to year, an unofficial but highly influential bunch of the richest, coolest and prominent businessmen and politicians in the world in the Swiss village of Davos was considered a key event for the global economy.

It is from the moods that prevailed in Davos, at the “Hamburg” account, dependent as entire countries and continents. This time, the mood in this Swiss ski resort was extremely poor – it seems that another global economic crisis…

Sad Davos cheerful Strasbourg

This year, as you know, in Davos not arrived leaders of the countries with the largest economies in the world – with the exception of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Have all your cares: Donald trump fights with Parliament over the Mexican wall, Theresa may , again at war with its own Parliament for the agreement Brakcet, françois Hollande , too, something fighting… and without them, Switzerland was somehow dark and gloomy.

Russian “podcasting” oligarchs directly asked “to honor the forum with his absence,” and without them, apparently, indignant, did not come and the world famous jester Vladimir nuclear club… But in Davos came as many as three candidates for the post of President of Ukraine – and this without considering the President himself. Poroshenko has opened the traditional “Ukrainian Breakfast”, negotiated and drove himself. He has a job.

Also visited Davos Yulia Tymoshenko.

The leader of “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko in Davos / Photo Commander

Anatoly Gritsenko came to courage and unwavering not to the hands of the President – that is, they say, I am a principled and hard. Well, to tell the truth – such an act requires extraordinary courage.

Anatoly Gritsenko / Photo Antikor

Another candidate, Igor Shevchenko, swept to Davos to hang in the hotel a little blue knitted hat and boasted on his Facebook page. Well, they have fulfilled their programme.

Igor Shevchenko has recently introduced a new free hat / Photo prefiksblog

But frankly, at this time, Davos came out sad. Yes that there – even ordinary session of the parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, which simultaneously took place in Strasbourg, was more fun and it’s more consistent rather: PACE adopted another anti-Russian resolution, and the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine together with the Ukrainian reporters had fun chasing couloirs Russian propaganda Skobeevo, telling her how she was a whore and that mouth is…

Economic fever

However, a special joy to the state of Affairs in the world should not wait. About it just shortly before the forum in Davos, said the head of the International monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde. She on behalf of his companies for the second time in the last couple of months has adjusted growth forecasts for the world economy to the ground.

The head of the International monetary Fund Christine Lagarde / Photo azertag

The risk of a strong pullback in global economic growth, no doubt, intensified”,
warned French economist and Vice President David Lipton, also added in a television interview that “the slowdown seems to start earlier than expected”.

What is it – 10 years after the last great financial crisis appeared on the horizon a new threat? Will not slide if the global economy to the downside? In the past several years, she knew only one direction – upwards. The 2019 rotary in this course?

In any case, it seems that this fear, politicians, businessmen and scientists, who arrived this year in Davos. A survey of the international consulting company PwC, which was conducted among 1400 business leaders in the world, demonstrates their confidence in the future disappears. Even if Lagarde stressed that the global recession is “definitely not behind the door” – even a simple slowdown in growth can have very bad consequences for the already fragile world…

Thus, the main theme of Davos was this year the situation with the global situation. The reasons for the crisis sentiment – “trade war” between the US and China, fears of the “uncontrolled Breccia,” the problem with the Italian budget, the French protests against the Makron, “shutdown” in America… you name it, all of these events by themselves may not have led to such experiences, but they occur simultaneously and accumulate, accumulate…

In his annual report of the Davos forum lists and other world problems – first of all, global warming and the growth of e-criminals.

Global risks increase, but the collective desire to fight them is weakening. Instead, the growing split,
– the authors of the document. All of this leads to panic the stock exchange, jump stock… well, it all goes down.

Yet only a year ago forum in Davos looked quite different. Then they were all full of optimism… maybe even too much. The President of the United States Donald trump arrived in Switzerland and radiated pleasure. “America first!” – he explained – it does not mean “America alone”. It awakened the hope that the United States can be relied upon, they remain a “locomotive”… But later, the same trump went on the escalation of the conflict with China. 12 months later, the global picture has changed radically, “pendulum” has swung in the other direction.

The mood is more optimistic, everything has become too fragile, complain to the world’s financiers and entrepreneurs.

However, the global recession they did not want to talk – perhaps in order not to draw?

An explosive mixture

In addition, a terrible danger to the world was the growth of political populism – think not so much policy, how many economists gathered at Davos. According to them, more and more people in the world feel insecure and even afraid of new technologies, environmental destruction, the collapse of financial markets.

The chief of one of the German consulting firm Roland Berger, thinks that, apart from fluctuations, Europe faces a structural crisis. The digitalization of the world is easy on the eyes changes the game in many industries. Europe could end up behind the world – now “virtual” companies from the US and China occupy the first position, and European – graze the rear. We need radical reform.

If a crisis – most countries in the world ready for less than it was ten years ago, – considers Vice-the IMF head Lipton.

This is an explosive mixture. Many state budgets of various countries simply do not have more space to maneuver, key countries have large debts. Dear support program environment, therefore, impossible – it can afford to let Europe except Germany. What can we say about the “little ones”?

However, we should not forget that economic development largely depends on mass psychology. If more politicians and managers may consider that a recession is inevitable – it will come. That is why the chief of the German branch of the world’s largest consulting company McKinsey Cornelius Baur warns:

I do not expect a recession, but we can agree to that, it will start.

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