Despite fears of international experts regarding military exercises of Russia and Belarus, which will start on September 14 in Minsk, Vladimir Putin will not take aggressive military steps that could provoke a full-scale war in Europe.
Good reasons for “another military invasion,” in what may turn out to be exercises “West-2017” no, says an editorial in the Financial Times.
First, Moscow has not pursued a propaganda and information operations over the potential for military intervention, write the authors. In theory, the “small victorious war” would go a long way to help Vladimir Putin ahead of the presidential elections to be held six months later, however, the armed conflict in North-Eastern Europe is unlikely to be small and its almost impossible to stop in the “acceptable scale” suggested by the journalists.
Second, joint military exercises with Belarus, Russia, most likely, wants to “intimidate” Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States, demonstrating the results of modernization of its armed forces and to show Moscow’s willingness to confront NATO, said later.
Therefore, given these circumstances, the Western countries during the Russian military exercises to monitor closely provocative steps and, if necessary, to respond carefully. In the future, I advise the journalists of the FT, we need to encourage Russia to adhere to the Vienna peace Treaty and to cover all “legal loopholes” in it, which Russia could use to your advantage.