Medvedev’s resignation almost dropped the Russian banking system

Dmitry Medvedev
Photo: reuters

In a feverish attempt to catch up with national projects, the Russian government has reached a cash gap.

In Russia, the feverish attempts of the government Dmitry Medvedev to catch up with the implementation of national projects in the last week of December turned into an ordeal for the Russian banking system is emerging from a record number of failures, including Sberbank and VTB, says

According to the Finance Ministry to execute the budget in December the government had to spend to 4.14 trillion Russian roubles – three times more than the average level for the previous 11 months. This amount included 30% laid down in the financing of national projects.

Monthly income of the budget (1.3-1.8 trillion) could not cover the amount needed, and the government had to withdraw funds from Bank accounts.

As a result, the banks experienced a record in the history of the outflow of state money for the month, the Finance Ministry took deposits and repurchase agreements 1.5 trillion rubles, according to data of the Federal Treasury and evaluation of Raiffeisenbank.

The withdrawal of liquidity at the end of the year – a normal practice, but the scale in 2019 was unprecedented, says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Stanislav Murashov.

Apparently, the operation took place in an emergency mode, and the Treasury was almost on the verge of a cash gap, he says. Stuffing the budget money came as a surprise even CB, which is more than a trillion rubles a mistake in the forecast of surplus liquidity at the end of the year (it amounted to 2.8 trillion rubles instead of the 3.6-3.9 trillion).

“The fact that the controller predicts the movement of funds via the budget channel in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and Federal Treasury,” explains Murashov. The fact that the Bank was not aware of evidence that the money was probably withdrawn from the banks and distributed to recipients in urgent haste.

On the background of the huge outflow of large banks have experienced a series of failures. In December, 4 times stopped the payments to the savings Bank: 12, 13, 16 and 30 December, customers complained about broken cards, no access to online banking and personal accounts.

11 Dec some hours, lay stretched VTB, 27 Dec – alpha Bank. According to the HSE, Sberbank and VTB hold more than 80% are placed in the banking system free money budget.

Thunder from a clear sky

The collapse of national projects in the first year of their implementation was the main reason for the sudden resignation of the government of Medvedev, told Forbes a few Federal officials.

Of the 10 national goals of the development plan the achievement of which the former Prime Minister signed in may, at the end of the year failed at least three. Instead of reducing the natural population decline, the country received its 30% increase to the historical record (more than 300 thousand people in January-October).

Non-commodity non-energy exports, which needed to increase from 214 to 230 billion dollars a year, according to the MAYOR, was reduced to 210 billion.

The poverty level was required to reduce from 12.9% to 12%, but instead at the end of the third quarter, Rosstat recorded an increase to 13.1%. Another 100 thousand people joined the army of the officially poor population reached 19.2 million Russians.

Withdrawal real disposable income of the population was possible only through creative work with statistics: the day before the big press conference of the President of the Russian Federation, Rosstat has revised down figures for 2018, has created a low base effect and accelerated the growth rate from 0.2% to 0.8% (the plan of Medvedev demanded of 0.5%).

The resignation Medvedev became the “bombshell”, said Forbes several Federal Ministers. For three days the message of the President, the Prime Minister knew nothing about his dismissal, nor the plans of the President to appoint the head of Federal tax service of Michael mishustina new Prime Minister, told Bloomberg two Federal officials.