photo: Gennady Cherkasov
As in the case of the tabulation of the preliminary results until 2018, Rosstat has left far behind all expectations. Reuters and Bloomberg believed that the growth of Russian industry will be 1.5%, Interfax was more modest 1.4 per cent. The gap Rosstat impressive.
At first glance the statistical office showed qualitatively new state of the domestic manufacturing industry. She woke up: in January 2019 it produced 1% less than in January 2018, in February — by 4.6% more than a year ago. For example, such integral (number of components) of products, like cars, produced 7.4 percent more. Significantly increased trade on positions that fill the concept of productive investment. So there is hope that a breakthrough started?
Experts, however, to share not ready. A well-known critic of “improving” statistics in the Ministry of economic development (MED) and Rosstat, Kirill Tremasov, who previously headed the Department of macroeconomic forecasting MAYOR, recalled that the February statistics are optimistic at odds with the surveys conducted by the Rosstat and the same which was much more pessimistic. Is boring to the point of banality, but almost exhaustive explanation: in February 2018 working days was one less than in 2019. If you count the total number of working days, further explains industry growth by 4.1%.
Then the main questions: will February is a turning month, which will start the countdown tangible rise above all the manufacturing industry, and whether it can become a driver of overall economic growth, the answers turn out negative. But to just abandon the “mystery of Feb” is not desirable. The “Solomonic solution” offers Alexey Devyatov from URALSIB. He does not criticize the data of Rosstat, but do not expect from him the same continue in the future. Version: the February increase is due to “one-off factors”.
However, apart from the already mentioned extra working day and other factors is not quite pull the role single. They can be the indexation of pensions and some social benefits, but this is a weak reference to the growth of industrial production. There is still further growth in consumer lending. But these factors are unlikely to explain satisfactorily the growth of investment.
The mood in the private sector proinvestirovany not name. In particular, according to the mentioned surveys of Rosstat. So we can talk about the growth of investment activity primarily state-owned companies. But whether such activity of the month-long “single factor”?
In any case, Devyatova is forecast: “In the coming months, the industry growth rate will decline as a result of the delayed negative consequences of increasing the tax burden, further deceleration of the economy of the EU and China, as well as the implementation of the commitments of the Russian Federation in the framework of the deal, OPEC+. According to our estimates, the growth rate of industrial production fell to 1.1% this year, in 2020-2021. the industry will add to 1.3–1.4% annually.”
Well, the competition between analysts and the Federal state statistics service continues. While on the side of Rosstat the element of surprise.