How much money the Belarusian authorities are hiding abroad?

In July, on account of the authorities came to a mysterious amount.

The national Bank has published an array of monetary statistics on 1 August. It is possible to find interesting information about the movement of money in the economy, writes

Every 3 months — in January, April, July and October — Belarusian enterprises pay quarterly taxes. Named periods are usually favorable for the Ministry of Finance, as budget revenues are growing, the surplus is also increasing.

The transfer of taxes from the accounts of enterprises for accounts in the system of the Ministry of Finance was visible in the official data. Thus, in the period between 1 July and 1 August the deposits of the public administration in the NBRB grew BYN 719 million, deposits of authorities in commercial banks — 561 million BYN.

It turns out that for the month estimated increase in balances amounted to 1.3 billion BYN. It is clear that the main contribution to growth has made the July taxes. Also in July increased the domestic liabilities of the regulator to the banks under the article “securities except shares” — by 494 million BYN.

This increase was due to a host of short-term ruble-denominated bonds of the NBRB. National Bank releases these bonds, to take from the system excess liquidity in a period of excess.

In July, the national Bank significantly increased its gold reserves, which could not affect the level of net foreign assets of the regulator. Part of the reserves of the authorities should be in banks with rating not below investment grade on the scales of international rating agencies Fitch Ratings, S&P and Moody’s.

In Belarus there are no suitable banks, because the country has a sovereign rating to “junk” group, on 5 levels below the lowest investment. Accordingly, part of the reserves of countries such as Belarus lies abroad.

From 1 July to 1 August net foreign assets of the NBRB increased by 463 million USD — up to 7,872 billion USD. Gross assets by August 1 reached 8,989 billion USD (+USD 402 million per month). In the structure of foreign assets of the national Bank, there was a typical castling.

The article “deposits” grew by 1,355 billion USD, and the article “loans” decreased by 980 million USD. Similarly, in July changed the components of international reserves: reserve assets in foreign currency increased by 1,308 USD billion and other assets decreased by 995 million USD.

The proximity of amounts with articles in gross foreign assets of the NBRB is not a coincidence. On July 1, “other assets” in the GCR represented the securities that are borrowed or acquired under REPO agreements (1,003 billion USD).

The remains in this article, GCR, often it swells, is reduced almost to zero, moving at the behest of the authorities in the reserves. Net foreign assets of commercial banks remained negative — minus 3,104 billion USD on August 1.

In July 2019 our banks repaid USD 272 million of loans issued by non-residents of Belarus.

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