On January 23 in Davos kicks off 48-th annual world economic forum (WEF). Traditionally, in the Swiss city will gather politicians, leaders, heads of major corporations and other influential representatives of the world community. For example, Emmanuel macron, will participate in a new role. If he had previously represented his country as Minister of economy, now as President. However, attention will be drawn to the other person. It is expected that the forum will make Donald trump a report about the historic tax reform of the United States. In addition, for the first time the WEF, all seven of his co-chairmen will be women. In particular, among them, the head of the International monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde.
Meanwhile, in anticipation of the beginning of work of the WEF experts unveiled a traditional report on global risks that await us in 2018.
One of the main potential hazards the authors of the document called the hunger. According to them, a sudden crop failure or natural disaster can lead to a crisis on a global scale. Moreover, with a concomitant jump in the price of food. Food shortage in one country could quickly destabilize the situation in neighboring.
In particular, a high risk of shortage of fish in the future. The fact that currently a third of all consumed fish caught illegally. Poachers are increasingly using high technology for its production. The consequences of weak control over this area can be catastrophic.
However, the WEF experts saw advantages in the global economy. According to their data, the recession ended in: stocks rose in 2017 by a two-digit value. In addition, according to the IMF, last year, global GDP growth will reach 3.6%. A year earlier it reached 3.2%.
However, any minor correction in the market hurt the countries where the share of owners of financial instruments is great. First of all we are talking about the US and the UK. And financial disasters can be triggered by cyber attacks, which are now distributed worldwide. The result will be panic among the population. And if a crisis 2007-2008 it managed to extinguish through the infusion of public funds in a way to reassure the population won’t work.
Meanwhile, experts interviewed by “MK”, warn of a new round of crisis. As noted by leading analyst Amarkets Artem Deev, the main feature of this is the catastrophic situation with the debt level in China. As you know, the people’s Bank of China last year has poured into the economy almost $3 trillion, which is equivalent to 2.5% of Russia’s GDP. Such actions of the authorities of China are trying to delay its own collapse. However, the cash infusion does not even cover the interest on already accumulated debt. “Currently, the debt of China to GDP exceeds 300%. In other words, the country became a pyramid scheme and not to change anything,” says the Deev.
Experts lay great hopes on tax reform in the United States, which is expected to be devoted to the speech of the American President Donald trump. “Until now, it remains unclear how a country with a national debt over $20 trillion will be able to afford to drop $1.5 trillion, which it could get while maintaining the same tax rates,” says the Deev.
In addition, according to the expert, the us stock market has long been associated with the financial bubble. We will remind, last time similar was observed in 2010. Then the key indices have fallen by more than 15%.
Of course, these and other financial issues will be discussed at the world economic forum in Davos. However we are unlikely to overestimate its value, in terms of influence on global trends. At least the experience of previous years shows that major decisions are not accepted. Maybe that’s why the Russian government delegation at the WEF will be headed by the only Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. Earlier, on January 16, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina has cancelled his visit to the Alpine village, and the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov to go to the forum “has no plans”.
Therefore, as suggested by Deev, under the roof of the WEF will be only one solution — to let the world economy in a natural way to complete another cycle of the crisis, and only then will think how to overcome it.
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