Budget anomaly — 2017: the Duma divides the additional income, and the deficit is rising

Deputies of the State Duma with the filing of the Ministry of Finance reallocated to its plenary meeting, additional budget revenues this year to $ 273 billion. At the same time they increased the Federal budget deficit-2017 1 percentage point to 2.2% of GDP. This means that the year ends in the Treasury not add more than 2 trillion rubles.

photo: Dmitry Katerinov

At the plenary session of the state Duma deputies engaged in a very enjoyable affair, the money was divided. Or rather, the additional revenues generated to the budget for the first three quarters. “Pie” to carve-up was rather big — 273 billion rubles, which the Ministry of Finance called non-oil revenues (125 billion) and savings of the expenditure of funds (148 billion).

However, the most interesting is not the sources of additional revenues and directions of their redistribution. The lion’s share (200 billion rubles) went to the solution of problems of defense and security. As said the head of the Ministry of Finance, “we speak that will help the companies that previously got into credit schemes, to resolve this issue before”. 36 billion will get the regions that had the most positive indicators for the growth of their tax revenues on income tax. 20 billion will be invested in loans to the agricultural sector. Or rather they will go to the recapitalization of the state agricultural Bank, which provides farmers with concessional loans. Finally, another 16 billion rubles will go to the development Fund industry.

In General, all the sisters got on earrings, that you can only be happy, if not one circumstance. At the same plenary meeting, the state Duma adopted in the first reading a bill to increase the Federal budget deficit in 2017 from 2.1% to 2.2% of GDP made by the government of the Russian Federation.

It would seem that a mere trifle — increase of deficit by 1 percentage point, but in monetary terms it looks not so harmless. According to calculations Anton Siluanov, the budget deficit of the current year increased by 84 billion rubles – to 2,008 trillion rubles. And this is completely changes the emphasis of today’s Duma action: it turns out that the deputies share lush pie and donut hole.

However, the Minister of Finance to draw attention to this paradox — on the one hand, share the additional revenues, on the other — growing budget deficit — was not assured MPs that everything is going according to plan. “This is absolutely consistent with the trend that we envisage for the coming three years. Because next year the budget deficit is planned in the amount of 1.4% of GDP, then in 2019-2020 less than 1%,” – said the Minister.

Professor at the Higher school of Economics Igor Nikolaev, in a conversation with “MK” gave his explanation of the resulting budget “anomaly”: the budget revenues are growing, but even more increasing costs — hence the growing deficit.

About it, however, the Finance Minister has opted-in to the meeting not to speak, but pleased deputies a bunch of good economic news. “To clarify the macro-economy, – said Siluanov, – We expect GDP growth this year to 2.1%, inflation by the end of 2017 is expected to level a little more than 3%. The ruble has also changed: more sturdy was in comparison with what was earlier provided in the budget. Recalculated and oil prices, which are also characterized by a more optimistic figures than was included in the law on the budget”.

Amendments to the budget for 2017 additional income and reallocated funds will be directed for capitalization of the agricultural Bank, increased investment in the industry development Fund and assistance to the defensive enterprises. This was stated by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, speaking at the plenary session of the state Duma amendments to the budget by 2017.

Read more on TASS:

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4655931 However, speaking after the head of the Russian audit chamber Tatyana Golikova tried to make a spoon of tar in a drawn Siluanov idyllic picture. In particular, she expressed doubts about achieving the year-end GDP growth rate of 2.1%, putting the risks “associated with overestimation in 2017 for the selected indicators influencing the dynamics of GDP.” To those she attributed the increased estimate of growth in capital investment (from 2 to 4.1%) and optimistic estimates of retail trade turnover (laid the annual growth rate of 1.2% in that time, as for the first nine months was 0.5%) and real disposable income (expected to increase by 1.3%, although they are in the “minus”). If the fears of the chamber of accounts will come true you are the hole in the budget this year may be even more solid than the one voted for by the deputies.

To fix it, said Igor Nikolaev, the authorities will be at the expense of the reserves that they have accumulated in the Reserve Fund and national welfare Fund (NWF), which are known to merge into one. The expert explained that the Reserve Fund is now about 1 trillion rubles, this will not be enough funding accumulated to the end of the year, the budget deficit, which, as became clear from today’s debate, will exceed $ 2 trillion. Then go to the expense funds “merged” Fund (there is now about 4 trillion rubles).

Such a huge waste of reserves the interlocutor of “MK” relates to the upcoming presidential election year. “It’s one thing before the election to say to people: “we spent all the Reserve Fund, which once had a 5 trillion roubles”, and quite another – “we have combined the funds, and we have a “safety cushion” – explained the logic of actions of the financial authorities of Nikolaev.

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