Blown billionaires wild of America

Elon Musk is a fraud, which in the Wild West take an example and consider geniesse the American economy – inflated bubble, and most of its advertised billionaires ordinary crooks and Scam artists which have long crying prison and they are presented to us as a financial genius and unique talents…


Are there any real billionaires?

Did not think I like it about the same time, not connected personally with Musk, but what is the news put me to ask the question. Read today:

Elon Musk, who owns Tesla and SpaceX firms get rich over the last three months to 1.7 billion dollars. Thus the status of the businessman rose to 15.6 billion dollars, writes Forbes on Tuesday.

That is alarming and surprising?

Such data are cited by Forbes in their ranking of the richest people in the world. The tech giant most money on Tesla, shares in the company March 1 has risen by 30%. That Tesla is the most expensive car manufacturer in America. Capitalization manufacturer of electric cars managed to win over such giants of automotive industry like General Motors and Ford.

But we understand that this is all virtual money the appreciated stock . And if tomorrow they fall 50%? Everything, good wealth “in the hands not holding”. I’ve been wondering, is there a Forbes list, where billionaires can put their money almost “cash” at any time? Well there’s gold, real, physical value of enterprises is sharply will not fall, and always something worth. It is always possible to sell. Bubbles on the stock exchanges of shares are the same, I lost 90% of value and to return back from the exchange can at times only paper.

And here we read “puzomerki” in these rankings, and billionaires then there is probably often a virtual and today. Is it really so?

And about the Mask:

Analysts say that these figures can be considered phenomenal since the share of cars in the Mask have less than one percent made in the USA machines. In the first three months of 2017, the company produced 25 million cars just in the United States during this same time, gathered 4 million cars. In 2017 Tesla aims to reach the production figure of 100 thousand cars a year.

Currently, there are opinions that in spite of all these great news Tesla can even lose the market of electric cars.

In the third quarter of 2016’s most famous electric car manufacturer Tesla Motors has shipped the maximum number of vehicles for nearly ten years – more than 25 thousand. The quarter was profitable for only the second time in company history.

However, in October and November, the shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) made one of the most serious falls – from $210 per share to $180. Explorer vc.ru tried to figure out what affected the value of the company, and why Tesla could face insurmountable difficulties.


Second time in six months Tesla Motors was interested in the SEC, the American Commission on securities and stock exchanges, and it’s always a bad sign. Year investigation concerned the sale of shares more than $2 billion after the accident with the participation of the autopilot. In the autumn of Tesla corrected for the fact that the company publishes incorrect statements.

Website Fortune explains that since the fourth quarter of 2014, Tesla provides its partners – leasing companies – unprecedented conditions. Manufacturer guaranteed buyback (repurchase) their cars at a fixed price, taking the risk of low residual value of a Tesla with mileage. So the leasing company bought and given Tesla without fear to stay with a bunch of illiquid machinery on the balance sheet a few years later. But Tesla Motors showed sales revenues, not reflecting (more than serious) obligation to repurchase.

Meanwhile, Forbes journalists unearthed that in 2016, Tesla breaks the investment program. From a planned 2.25 billion of capital expenditures in the first six months, the company spent only $512 millionin the third quarter – a ridiculous $126 million. Even with correction of the annual plan to $1.8 billion (a bad sign for a company that develops) in the fourth quarter will have to spend more than $1 billion. What this will transform the financial result of the fourth quarter?

Journalists Zerohedge believe that nothing much will happen. After all the statements Tesla if true, in principle, can not be correctly estimated and the market prefers to keep quiet about it. For example, in 2016 Tesla to pay off its suppliers. In just nine months kratkosrochnye payables debt grew from $1 billion to $1.6 billion. That is, the company lent $600 million from their suppliers, but no one does problems. And $400 million of prepayments from customers for the Tesla 3 press staged event.

And even taking from everyone, including their customers, Tesla will still lose more than a billion dollars of cash. And yet the same in 2017 to early 2018 will devastate her and make the inevitable search for new funding, from what recently denied by Elon Musk.

15-year-old startup

The speed at which Tesla is spending cash, there’s a simple explanation – from the point of view of production, it is stunningly inefficient company even in the fifteenth year of its existence.

18 thousand (and after recent acquisitions – more than 30 thousand) employees of Tesla in 2016, has made about 80 thousand cars. Per employee have less than 5 carsat the same time:

– Toyota 350 thousand people produce almost 17 million cars (50 cars per employee),

– BMW 122 thousand people and 2.5 million cars (20 cars per employee),

and even in the Porsche 25 thousand people produce 225 thousand cars (9 cars per employee per year).

Tesla Motors is very small by world standards, the automaker. Other independent companies with a hundred thousand output at all. An independent company should produce about one order of magnitude more cars – at least a million. Why Tesla is not just unprofitable, and is operating in the red, that is, the company loses money on its core business – the production of cars. Even without taking into account R&D or construction of the Gigafactory (factory batteries – approx. ed.).

In the industry referred to the cost of development is too small: Tesla spends on R&D of about $700 million a year (and a couple of years ago spent only $250 million), on the Gigafactory left a total of less than $500 million For comparison, Volkswagen’s 2015 spent on R&D 15 billion euros.

At least one important reason for the popularity of Tesla has nothing to do with high technology and marketing genius Mask: machines are sold cheaper than they cost. Probably, for this reason, Daimler and Toyota, at different times owning 10% of Tesla Motors, limited collaboration technologies.

While Porsche (brand with which is often compared to Tesla) earns an average of $20 thousand dollars on each sold car, the Tesla loses about four thousand dollars even with the subsidies from the state. To reach a similar level of profitability, the average price of the Model S and Model X needs to be increased from $80 thousand to $110 thousand – more than a third.

Probably, the market can not accept such a car. Moreover, the hope of the brand, the Tesla Model X crossover has already been accused of mismatch price and quality, and the American Consumer Report called a crossover “absolutely disappointing” (But beyond the brag-worthy magic, the all-wheel-drive Model X 90D largely disappoints). They note that the car’s suspension is too hard, roll-up doors do not work well, the interior of the primitive, and the trunk is too small.

Tesla is losing its unique status. In 2019 the market will be Porsche Mission E – a competitor Tesla Model S (which by that time it will be seven years). The Germans plan to sell 20 thousand cars a year. In 2018 the market will be electrocreaser Jaguar I-Pace.

In November it became clear that the SEC is not planning any sanctions to the Tesla. Without consequences remained and spring the story of the sale of the shares.

In rendering the interior of the Porsche Mission E looks functional Tesla Model S – except for the big screens it was a place the interior of the supercar, the 918 and the premium sedan, the Panamera. Dynamics are also not inferior electrocare Mask: more than 600 HP, less than 3.5 seconds to 100 km per hour, 500-kilometer range.

According to journalists, I Jaguar-Pace looks more interesting and brighter Model X. given the smaller dimensions of the model I-Pace should be more accessible, but not slower: 400 HP and less than 4 seconds to 100 km per hour.

All-in on Tesla 3

It’s not like the competition in the premium segment was much troubled Tesla Motors – the company plans to begin shipment of its most popular Tesla Model 3 in 2017. “Tops” argue that the model is run is ahead, and in 2018 will be produced 500 thousand cars.

In the spring of 2016 for the production of Tesla Motors meets a former top Manager of Audi with more than 20 years of experience, which plans to produce half a million cars on the existing Tesla factory. The goal is clear: without an increase in the release of at least five times (and better – ten) Tesla most likely will not be able to exist as an independent company. At least, anyone in the world haven’t made it yet.

That listed really, stronger than all the doubts Morgan Stanley, whose analysts point to the start of production in late 2018 and the supply volume not more than 150 million units in 2019. This casts doubt on the future of Tesla, for example, negates the value of pre-orders for the Model 3. It turns out that half of all potential buyers have to wait for the car four years and longer.

On the other hand, doubt in the possibility to offer the electric car with 200-mile reserve for $35 thousand no one. For example, the Chevrolet Bolt: the first cars will go to customers in February 2017. Bolt accelerates in 6.5 seconds to 100 km per hour, drove more than 220 miles on a single charge. Looks not as cool as the upcoming Tesla sedan, but the Bolt can be configured on the website and buy right now.

According to the industry, Chevrolet is losing $9 thousand on each car, so the real cost of a small electric vehicle is about $45 thousand. This seems to be true: the same $45 thousand is the BMW i3, and for $30-35 thousand offer Nissan Leaf with a range of one hundred miles. How realistic is it to make the Tesla Model 3 profitable? Apparently, all hopes on the Gigafactory.

The Gigafactory project is not only technological, but also marketing genius Mask. The plant is mentioned only in conjunction with the Tesla name, despite the fact that $1.6 billion of a total budget of $2 billion spends Panasonic – and, strictly speaking, it is their plant.

The Gigafactory has already become a symbol, but it only combines with Panasonic factory lithium batteries, albeit huge. Due to the modern (and very large) production, located in the biggest building in the world, the Gigafactory will reduce the cost of batteries by a third. At the same time the company will be able to save the expense of production of the power plant there. How much this will affect the price of the car?

As noted by the technical Director of Tesla Motors, now the battery the Tesla Model S is only about a quarter of the car – that is $20-25 thousand. Estimating the unit cost of energy, analysts say about $100-150 per kWh in the battery (Cell cost) and for $200-250 dollars per kWh with the housing, the control electronics (Pack cost).

The expected reduction in prices by a third will result in a savings of $8-10 million, equivalent to a reduction of the price of cars by about 10%. Or allow to replace the loss of Federal subsidy of $7500, which, incidentally, will happen very soon – the US compensates the automaker $7500 for each electric car, but only within the first production of 200 thousand pieces. And Tesla has already made two thirds of this volume – about 125 thousand cars.

Battery in Model 3 is cheaper and the cost of car will decrease by $3-4 thousand. Not enough to compete in price with the concern General Motors, which earns several billion dollars a year and can afford to subsidize the “electrical” direction for a very long time. And a dozen other major automakers that are configured about the same.

However, Tesla is no stranger to more serious issues – no wonder stock analysts are called shares of Tesla Motors “Roller coaster”, smiling sharp drops and jumps in the fate of the company. To the first days of 2017, the shares of Tesla as a whole played autumn fall and today the company is worth $35 billion For comparison, General Motors is worth $53 billion In 2016 production plans finally began to run. The cash reserves back to back, but it should be enough to revenue from the Model 3. Meanwhile, the first Gigfactory will allow to gain a foothold in the market battery suppliers, and the purchase of a Solar City will open the way to the delivery of integrated energy solutions.




Elon musk Is a Fake and a Ponzi scheme of cosmic proportions



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