Before leaving, do not go away: What happens in Kazakhstan

Nursultan Nazarbayev has ceased to be President of Kazakhstan, but kept the power in the country, who rules unchallenged for almost 30 years. That now will change in Kazakhstan – in the material Without Taboo (spoiler alert – nothing will change).

Nursultan Nazarbayev has repeatedly had to call the epitome of the classic steppe deceit and cunning. He almost thirty years tacked to and fro in time choosing the right allies and dumping ballast. A no, but the cult of personality still blind under the guise. But no one could not assume that about their own care on a holiday the permanent President of Kazakhstan will be announced so all of a sudden. Even more unexpected than once Yeltsin with his “I’m tired, I’m leaving.”

This unusual move into the political specifics of Central Asia does not fit in any way. Some experts believe that the “father of the nation” dipped health. However, power in these parts, decided to stay even on his deathbed – Saparmurat Niyazov and Islam Karimov would not give to lie, if I was alive. Yes and no rebellions in the spirit of Kyrgyzstan here does not smell. Because suggests only one conclusion: the head of state decided to take a strategic break. This is no pension and the maximum break for a year.

The President keeps everything under control

Last year the Kazakh (and not only) the public was agitated by the presidential decree according to which by 2025 the country finally and irrevocably go to the Latin alphabet instead of the Cyrillic alphabet. As usual, for the trees of the forest noticed: yet continued bickering on language issues, the political elite of Kazakhstan, in case of force majeure neatly under him rewrite key laws. Prerequisites for transition of power in the very very wrong hands was not in principle, but was now cut off even the theoretical possibility of emergence at the helm of strangers.

First, the Leader (the so-called Nazarbayev) has made the security Council of Kazakhstan from the Kazakh analogue of the NSDC of Ukraine to the body with the highest authority in the Republic. Every single power structure accountable to the SBC that the rights of honorary President to “continue the historical mission” will be headed by the President. So genius in its simplicity, the scheme is not even dreamed of Lukashenko – but Father (the so-called Lukashenka) in the old days, security forces on older sons to close had. Given the exorbitant number of human rights violations in the country is alarming, but rather for observers from the outside. Local long been accustomed to the “strong hand”, which regularly allows himself to grab something bad lies. The budget, for example.

Nazarbayev on the way to Europe, later recognized as dead-end

Secondly, finalize the shift of the geopolitical vector. Many have forgotten that in 90-e is not Russian most actively toyed with the idea of creating an abstract “Eurasian Union”. An experienced politician and an aspiring President Nazarbayev then justifiably afraid of Islamic expansion from the South, the rate in China did not seem so obvious, and Russia briefly turned into like a civilized member of the world community. Here Nursultan Nazarbayev and intended to enter Europe trailer behind Moscow.

But after decades in Kazakhstan realized what was poured from a sieve. But the tipping point was the invasion of Russia in Ukraine – Crimea and Donbass. What is stopping the aggressor state in the presence of common borders to organize aggression against the Kazakhs? Yes anything, in General. Hence the sudden transition to the Latin alphabet, and neat, but a confident sweep of Pro-Russian political forces. However, to completely get rid of the influence of our Northern neighbors could not – by law, the functions of the President until the election of 2020 will be fulfilled by the head of the Senate Kassym-Zhomart Takaev, a career diplomat, twice former foreign Minister and a graduate.

Successor at the time

Cul of personality? No, not heard

The Kremlin strategists, well minded only in hindsight, spotted the chance to save at least some influence on the comrades in the EEU. On the personal orders of Putin even began replacing governors of the border regions. Alternative Yuri Berg in the Orenburg region in the meantime, and in the Chelyabinsk Governor Boris Dubrovsky is already transferred of Teksler – man of the inner circle of oligarch Vladimir Potanin. In Moscow hope that in the shortest possible time the knee will be able to create new connections and leverage.

However, even in Russia already there is an alternative view: the twine is now the regime of Hu..La (the so-called Putin) webs Astana (soon President) will not get. After all, much stronger in Kazakhstan are now influenced by China. Points of contact and really a lot – the aforementioned Tokayev, for example, many worked in Beijing in the Soviet Embassy. Much more important is that the head of the KNB has recently appointed Karim Massimov, former attracting billions of dollars in investments from the Chinese, Turks and Arabs. Though he is kind of shady figure, but in fact the powers have to be more than acting President.

Nazarbaev’s daughter at a reception at the Queen Elizabeth the Second

However, in the midst of the transit authority loyal to the younger generation it is not necessary to create illusions about a snake with multiple heads. Because the head was left alone. Nothing stops Nursultan Nazarbayev to sit out a year in sinecures, and then to run for President uncontested and win. But if years still not the same, then look for a change, whether it be a daughter Dariga, “the family purse” Akhmetzhan Yessimov or someone else. Risks still minimized – representatives of big business to government not to greedily because the candidate needs a minimum of five years work in public service.

Win lottery with whatever side you look.

Vitaliy Mogilevskiy Without Taboos

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *