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A large-scale war in 2018: fighting or not?

The war in 2018: Donbass, North Korea, Syria, Russia, Afghanistan or Venezuela – where to expect the attack of the Zionists?The neocons returned to power in the United States and completely in control of the White House, Congress and the media. Their Anglo-Zionist Empire is crumbling and only large-scale war, in their opinion, is able to save US. Will such a war in 2018 and where?…

 

2018 – fight or not?

The Author – The Saker

The first months of 2017 was a time of great hope after the historic defeat Hillary Clinton and the end of the year bleak, almost insanely. Not just easy, but fast and “swamp” recessed trump, but the Anglo-Zionist Empire still comes after a humiliating defeat in Syria, and now the neocons believe the entire planet an endless shaft threats.

Moreover, now the administration trump unveiled a national security Strategy, clearly demonstrating that the Empire is in “full paranoia”. It is quite obvious that the neocons were back and in full control of the White House, Congress and corporate media of the USA . Okay, maybe not as bad as in the case of the election of Clinton, but bad enough to wonder whether there will be inevitable war in the coming year.

If you follow the rhetoric of the neocons, they look to the following countries:

  • Afghanistan (massive build-up has already been promised).
  • Syria (the threat of a us-Israeli-Saudi attack, the attack on Iranian forces and Hezbollah in Syria).
  • Russia (disabling the SWIFT system; theft of Russian assets in the United States, the attack on Russian forces in Syria).
  • Iran (a Revision of the nuclear agreement, the attack on Iranian forces in Syria).
  • Donbass (support unrealistische a full-scale offensive in the new Russia).
  • DPRK (direct and open military aggression, aerial and naval blockade).
  • Venezuela (military intervention “in defense of democracy, human rights, freedom and civilization”).
  • Of course, a much larger number of countries, the US threatened to various degrees, but these seven have become good candidates for the US aggression.

    Let me immediately say that the enumeration of pragmatic arguments against this kind of aggression in a given time is probably in vain. In any case, the recent disaster that started the American recognition of Jerusalem shows very clearly that the United States is driven by people at least as stupid and ignorant as it is evil, aggressive, and possibly worse. The sad reality in which we now live – one where a nuclear superpower is no minimum intelligence required to act in protecting its own national security interests, and it is very scary.

    Last week I reviewed thinking, which I have called “ideological drone.” If you look at the thinking of the ruling circles of American national security, we immediately note that it is almost the same as an ideological drone. The biggest difference between them, perhaps, is that the ideological drone suggests that it’s operators – the most sincere and honest people, and members of the elite not only know that they are extremely hypocritical and false, but also consider it a sign of superiority: the drones believe in their ideology, and the rulers don’t believe in anything absolutely.

    Take the example of Syria. All American leaders are fully aware of the following facts:

  • Daesh/ISIL*/al-Nusra and others – of their own making, and they made every effort to save these terrorists.
  • Joint efforts of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah defeated Daesh/ISIL/al-Nusra and others, despite the Anglo-Zionist support and attacks on Syrian forces.
  • The Anglo-Zionist forces are in Syria is completely illegal.
  • But none of this did not prevent them to declare that they, and not Russia, defeated Daesh / ISIL / al-Nusra and so on. This is absolutely amazing, think the entire planet knows exactly what happened in Syria, but Uncle Sam says that black is white, water is dry, but the truth is a lie. And the great thing is they know that everybody knows this, but that they did not care. Why? Because they firmly believe in four things:

  • We can buy any.
  • Whom we can’t buy, intimidate.
  • Anyone can not bully, kill.
  • With us, nothing happened, we live in total impunity, regardless of what we do.
  • In addition to intelligent people there is another type of people who completely disappeared from the ruling circles of the American national security – people with honor, courage, integrity. Let’s take a perfect example – Tillerson.

    Impossible to say that Tillerson is an idiot. Man has proven many times that he is reasonable and very talented. And he is still a rag under the feet of Nikki Haley. Nikki Haley – this guy is the real moron! But not Tillerson. However, Tillerson has no principles of honor, courage, integrity, to demand the immediate dismissal of this full dumb girls or if this is not done, leave, and slam the door. No, he just sits and suffers one humiliation after another. Oh, sure, he probably soon he will leave, but when happens to his resignation, it would not make any difference, sort of small event, just a sad and touching in the end completely failed as Secretary of state.

    The same applies to the U.S. military, was not any officer, who would resign in protest against the fact that the US is very close with those who – at least according to the official conspiracy theory – is responsible for the events of 9/11. No, actually the special forces of the United States working with the likes of al-Qaeda day after day, and none of these “patriots” in honor, courage, integrity to publish.

    Morons and cowards. And yet, as I think they are traitors to the country and the people. Not the patriots.

    Raving morons giving orders, and dishonest cowards, blindly carrying them out. That’s what we’re dealing with. How would have written in Twitter trump is “not Good.”

    Alas, this is a very difficult combination to hold them or try to convince of something.

    But some of these guys need to understand that the advantage is not on their side. On the one hand an endless stream of military defeats and political failures have to tell them that inaction in General preferable action, especially for the ignorant people. Moreover, one simple way to consider risks is to say that risk is the factor of the probability multiplied by the consequences: R = x P.

    I don’t think that the leaders of the United States formally really think so, but from the point of view character is quite simple, even for drones ideological type. If we assume that this is so, we can now revise the look of the neocons, decision-makers concerning the 7 countries listed above (not my views! I have already outlined, as I see it the risks of attacks on these countries in an article written this summer):

    A couple of points:

    Afghanistan: very clear and least controversial in Afghanistan will increase, which will lead to a greater number of body bags, will give nothing, will cost a bloody abyss, but no one cares.

    Syria: very tempting, but high risk – U.S. troops will find themselves face to face with the Iranians and Hezbollah, who dream about such a day for many decades and will extract the maximum political gain from those who will be captured or killed. Frankly, to fuck with the Iranians or Hezbollah is a very, very terrible option. Ask the Israelis. 🙂

    Russia, option 1: the rumors that the US will cut off Russia from SWIFT, and steal (that is, politely put, “freeze) Russian assets and funds in USA been around for a long time. And Russians make all sorts of noise around this, but it is very uncertain, and it tells me that Russia might not be a good response, and that this time the wind is blowing from Moscow. Of course, Putin is an unpredictable master of strategy, and the guys around him are very, very smart. They may have something hidden up your sleeve, I don’t know, but I suspect that unlike me, the U.S. intelligence community should be aware that there may be. I’m not an economist, a lot in this area because assessed the risk as I “unknown.”

    Russia, option 2: Russia’s reaction to downed Turkish in 2015, the su-24 could make it clear to American politicians and commanders that they can do the same and go unpunished. But they can be wrong. The big difference with the situation around su-24 that Syria deployed a wonderful air defense, represents a serious threat to US forces. Moreover, if there is an attack on the Russian plane and a Russian will answer a volley of missiles surface-to-air, then what will the Americans attack a battery of s-400? And the United States are in a funny situation in confrontation in the air. Although the F-22 is a great combat aircraft, it has one big weakness – it was created in order to identify the enemy at a great distance and shoot first before he will notice (I mention only the F -22, as it is the only American plane that can challenge the su-30SM/su-35). But if the rules require that before the shot was fired at Russian aircraft F -22 should give a clear warning or if the aircraft are at medium or close range, the F -22 is at a disadvantage, especially against su-30 or su-35. Another big weakness of the F -22 is that unlike su-30/su-35 he does not have a full set of electronic warfare (integrated electronic warfare system INEWS F -22 indeed the case has not been classified).

    Simply put, this means that F -22 was created with the goal of maximizing the low effective area of reflection of the radar, but at the expense of all other aspects of air combat capability (power of the radar, super-maneuverability, electronic warfare action, and so on). Everything very quickly becomes very technical and complicated, but I think we can agree that the neocons are unlikely to be impressed by the risks the Russian forces in Syria, and that they probably think they can sting Russians by the nose, and the Russian will have to endure. U.S. commanders on the spot may think otherwise, but it absolutely does not matter. All the same, I put here the risk is “average” even though potentially all this could lead to a catastrophic thermonuclear war, because I think that the neocons do not believe that the Russian will go to greater escalation (who will start the Third World because of one downed plane, right?!). Think if you were a commander of Russian troops in Syria, what would you do if the US crashed your plane (remember, we assume that you are a responsible and intelligent commander and not a flag-waving maniac)?

    That will not stop, so it’s a full-scale demonization of Russia, consequently, the relationship between the two countries deteriorate further. Russia under Putin is a kind of “Mordor”, which represents all evil and is behind all evil. The prosecution and the open hatred of Russia have now become a form of demonstration of virtue. Since all the US political elite benefit from this phobia, all lower the probability that in the foreseeable future that will change.

    Iran: trump announced that he wanted to withdraw from the agreement, and although technically and by law he do not may, it did not matter. The US has long refused to even pretend to respect any laws, including international. In addition, since trump obviously izrailskii shabes-Goy, I think it is possible to assume that it will happen.

    Donbass: will the finally ukronatsistov offensive? Well, they’re already many months! They not only did not stop bombing Donbass, but now they have a new (pseudo) strategy, “froggy jump”, which consists in the extension of the military forces in the neutral zone, capture unprotected towns, and then they declare a major victory over Russia. In addition, they are rearming reorganizatsiya, regroup and other methods will accumulate forces in the East. As a result, the ukronatsistov have at least a three-fold superiority over Novorossia. However, you should not look at it from the point of view ukronatsistov or Novorossia. On the contrary, we need to look at everything from the point of view of the neocons:

    The way I see it is that in all three cases, the Anglo-Zionists triumph, although it is clear that option # 2 the worst possible results, and option # 3 is the best. In truth the Anglo-Zionists is little to lose in case of an attack ukronatsistov on the new Russia. Of course, this does not apply to the Ukrainian people. Now the United States and several European countries send different types of weapons to ukronatsistov. This is clearly not news, because they do that for years. What is more, made in the West, the gun won’t make any difference, at least from a military point of view, it is always much easier to send more weapons. The real value is political: the supply of “lethal” weapons (like a weapon is not lethal!) just means the green light to attack. Let’s hope that the ukronatsistov will be busy fighting each other, and that the previous humiliating defeat deter them from trying again, but I think ukronatsistskuyu attack on the Donbass is highly likely.

    North Korea: here is a complete unknown. There are many opponents, but you know that some people will fight to the last if necessary (the Iranians, the Russians, Hezbollah). But authoritarian regimes tend to have very low critical limit, unless of course they will not convince their people that those are not fighting for a political regime, and for their country. I don’t think anyone knows exactly what will make the North Koreans in the event of an attack, but I don’t see any reason to believe that the North Koreans wouldn’t fight. From what I’ve heard, the memory of the relentless beats of U.S. troops by the North Koreans during the last war on the Korean Peninsula is still very fresh. Here’s what I recently wrote to the intelligence officer, serving in the region:

    “Boasting of the administration trump touches. If this was a movie, not real life, it would be funny (this is funny, but being ***** I don’t really approve of). The sad thing is that the choice centre may not create the best soil for propaganda in North Korea: in all ways, including physical, it corresponds to a caricature of evil, way beyond the Imperial-capitalist Yankee businessman. If Hitler came back and with impunity threatening to destroy US any day (and he has the means to do)”.

    If this specialist is right and I have no reason to believe otherwise, it is reasonable to assume that the possible dissatisfaction of his North Korean ruling elite is very small in comparison with the hatred of the United States.

    [Sidenote: he has more interesting comments regarding my assessment of the impact of war on the Korean Peninsula. Here is what he wrote me:

    Japan is a major target for a number of reasons. The biggest is that there are plenty of American bases that would be used for the introduction of more us troops before the war, but also the fact remains – North Korea (and actually a large part of South Korea) openly hate the Japanese. I’m not going to hold a history lesson (you probably know), but there is not love lost, and even if the war was limited to the Peninsula, and it is not, then the global economy will get a big blow, since a huge amount of global supply chains goes through South Korea (which itself is somewhere between 10 and 15 largest economies in the world). I think Incheon (West of Seoul) is the busiest airport at least regional is a major international node, and Busan , and Incheon are among the busiest ports in the world, I want to say that Busan is in the top five, he uploaded more than Japanese ports.

    All Chinese goods to America, through the sea of Japan – they need to be redirected. And weight of the components for electronics are actually manufactured in South Korea, before Assembly in China – so that there will be a problem. So, even if we’re the only one who’ll drown, it will be bad news for the global economy. Your assessment of the threats of artillery and special forces is similar to mine. One thing I always think is funny how many people disparage “artillery during the Second World war”. In General, the “artillery during the Second World war”, probably killed more people than any weapons systems in modern history (well, unless you’re talking about something General, like “knives” or “guns”). And it’s not that you will be less dead if your house hit of 152-mm artillery shell, not a guided bomb”.]

    And the fact of the matter is that if you attack a small defenseless country, then you can ignore the consequences of incorrect assumptions, but dealing with a country like DPRK on such a miss, no sane politician or commander to go never dare. But crazy morons giving orders, and dishonest briefs – does anyone of them will demonstrate the caution necessary with such a large threat?! I honestly don’t think so. In fact, I see no reason not to believe it. Remember “easy walk” in Iraq? This term thrown my former teacher at the school of advanced international studies (SAIS) , Ken Edelman, a perfect illustration of the thinking of the neocons: pure ideology, and to hell with it, with caution. We all know this “walk” costly Iraqi and American peoples: over a million dead for the first and more than five trillion dollars for the second. That’s really the walk… the fact that at the moment nobody knows what can be the result of a U.S. attack on North Korea, even North Koreans. Will this be enough to keep the insane morons and dishonest cowards, now standing at the head of the Empire? Tell yourself!

    Venezuela: how much hatred is not fueled elite of the United States to Venezuela, but the country is not a profitable target or, if I may paraphrase, is a perfect target for subjugation, but probably not as good for the intervention. Violence in Venezuela is clearly in the interests of the United States, but a direct military intervention – probably not. My contacts say that the military of Venezuela are in a terrible mess (and quite corrupt), but they also say that the popular desire to fight the Yankees is so great that any military intervention will immediately launch a terrible guerrilla war (not to mention a powerful political backlash in the rest of Latin America). The truth is that the US probably have the means to use military force to invade, but they have much better options.

    Now let’s summarize

    High chancethat in the 2018 USA

    • Reinforce the war in Afghanistan.
    • Thwart a nuclear agreement with Iran.
    • Support ukronatsistskoy offensive in the new Russia.

    It is quite possiblethat the United States also

    • Shot down a Russian plane over Syria.

    I think it is unlikelythat the United States

    • Invade Syria.
    • Invade Venezuela.

    I can’t appreciatewill make US the following:

    • Disconnect Russia from SWIFT or seize Russian assets.
    • Attack of the DPRK.

    Honestly, I’m not sure this attempt to analyze possible developments in 2018. My education was always based on the primary assumption: that others are intelligent. It’s not such a great assumption, but it truly was fundamental during the cold war. Today was, as I am inclined to think that psychologists are probably better suited to predictions of the actions of the rulers of the Anglo-Zionist Empire than military analysts. Moreover, history shows that the combination of insane morons and dishonest cowards usually ruining the Empire that had a good example with the collapse of the Soviet Empire.

    After the last fiasco trump personally, I left any hope to see the President of the United States, can make a positive contribution to the welfare of the people of the United States or the rest of the world. The burden is now definitely falls on Russia and China – to do everything in their power to try to stop the United States from the beginning of the even more disastrous and extremely immoral wars. This is a very difficult task, and I honestly don’t know, they will be able to do it. It’s the best I can say.

    Source

     

     

    Possible scenarios of war between the US and North Korea: who will be under attack

     

    US hope that Kiev will begin a massive offensive against Donbass – Korotchenko

     

     

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